FOCN45 CWWG 161900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY APRIL
16 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA,
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SK AND MB.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT TODAY, A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF CALGARY, ALBERTA. THE FLOW REBOUNDS INTO A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MANTIOBA, THEN TURNS EASTERLY AS A MODERATE
TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IN THE NORTH, AN UPPER
LOW SITS OVER WESTERN DAVIS STRAIT WITH A TROUGH NORTH OVER BAFFIN
ISLAND. TO ITS WEST, A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SIT OVER THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC, ONE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO AND ANOTHER ALONG
THE NUNAVUT COASTLINE NEAR VICTORIA ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN YUKON INTO NE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NW ALBERTA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIES IN THIS TROUGH, CONNECTING TO A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER THAT THEN DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND TURNS EASTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES/NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THEN LIFTING NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS NW
ONTARIO, ACROSS JAMES BAY, AND INTO QUEBEC. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, A
1027 HIGH SITS ALONG THE NORTHERN MANITOBA/NUNAVUT BORDER WITH
RIDGING THAT SPRAWLS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA, EAST ACROSS
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC, AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BACK TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, A 998 MB LOW SITS ALONG THE
DAKOTAS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. LASTLY, A 997 MB
LOW SITS OVER DAVIS STRAIT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC WITH AN OCCLUDING
FRONTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND A TORUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO
CUMBERLAND SOUND.

DISCUSSION...

AB...HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WILL GRADUALLY
END WEST-TO-EAST TODAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE, HOWEVER WE DID RECEIVE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 30-35 CM IN AREAS
BETWEEN CALGARY AND BROOKS, AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF HANNA.
COMPLICATING SNOW MEASUREMENTS ARE THE SNOW DRIFTS CREATED BY
30-40 KM/H WINDS, WITH SOME DRIFTS MEASURED UP TO 100 CM DEEP.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 5-15 CM ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE THIS EVENT
COMES TO A CLOSE OVER ALBERTA.

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THIS WEEKEND.

MB/SK...THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM TODAY THAT IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO MANY
REGIONS ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW AND A DEVELOPING FREEZING RAIN RISK.

THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SNOW STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY CORRIDOR IN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PARKLAND AND
INTERLAKE REGIONS OF MANITOBA. IN THIS BROAD BAND OF SNOW STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT STRENGTHENED
WITH AN INJECTION OF COLD AIR SOUTH OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL THAT HAS RESULTED IN RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
ASCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
EAST, THEN SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE AS THE SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AND A
NEW BLOSSOMING JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH INTERCEPTS THE MOISTURE FEED.

A YELLOW SNOWFALL WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN EVENT ACCUMULATIONS:
BROADLY 10 TO 15 CM WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 25 CM DUE
TO THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH
THE MORNING.

IN MANITOBA, THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WITH BROADLY 5 TO 10 CM FOR THE
AREAS THAT GET SNOW AND A CHANCE OF UP TO 15 CM IN PARTS OF THE
RIDING MOUNTAINS.

THE PRIMARY FREEZING RAIN RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH DAKOTA THAT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS JET,
COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND A COMPACT AND A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHERN
MINNESOTA, AND SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THAT TRACKS INTO
THE PROVINCE EARLY FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND; MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED IT FROM WEST OF
WINNIPEG TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PROVINCE THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK, BUT SOME MODEL RUNS THURSDAY AM ARE BEGINNING TO BACK IT
UP WEST BACK TOWARDS WINNIPEG AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE
NOTABLE AS THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
WITH A RISK OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 MM OF FREEZING RAIN.

WITH THE ENTRENCHED COLD AIR OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT THIS POINT,
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN, BUT THE STRONG ADVECTION ALOFT COULD MEAN A NEED FOR SNOW OR
ICE PELLETS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE WHITESHELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ALERT AS
NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

NT...LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MACKENZIE AND GREAT SLAVE REGION
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, WITH NO NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

NUNAVUT...A HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
TODAY IN QIKIQTARJUAQ. THE COMMUNITY RECEIVED NEARLY 40 CM OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER 5 TO 10 CM TO MIDDAY. SIMILARLY, BUT TO A MUCH
LESSER EXTENT, HEAVY SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT TIMES IN PANGNIRTUNG WITH
THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING THE CUMBERLAND PENINSULA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
CLOSER TO 10 CM THERE.

A YELLOW SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR QIKIQTARJUAQ AND WILL END
WITH THE SNOW LATER TODAY.

FURTHER WEST, MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BRINGING BLOWING SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 TO 3/4 SM TO NAUJAAT THE MELVILLE PENINSULA.
WE DO NOT EXPECT A BLIZZARD TO BE SUSTAINED, BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
AN ISSUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
EVENING AS THE WINDS EASE.

END/VROLIJK/MYASTKIVSKYY