FXUS65 KABQ 151120 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday to northeastern and east-central NM and a majority of the state Friday, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calmer conditions are moving into the Land of Enchantment tonight as yesterday's upper low opens and ejects northeastward out over the central Great Plains region tonight. A few locations continue to see localized breezy conditions near this midnight hour, but overall lighter winds will continue to take hold tonight. The calmer and clearer conditions in tandem with lowering humidity will allow for temperatures to efficiently drop tonight. This will be especially true over the western and northern thirds of the state where Wednesday morning lows are forecast to fall to near or below freezing. This includes near freezing along the San Juan River near Farmington. Wednesday will see very pleasant spring weather across the Land of Enchantment with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s and modest afternoon breezes. Thursday sees the next round of dry and windy weather move in as a synoptic scale troughing pattern moves into the northwestern CONUS. The main trough axis of this system will still be a ways away over northern NV come Thursday, but still close enough to allow for windy conditions to spread across the state in the afternoon. Peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will focus over the northeastern highlands and plains. Warm air advection alongside these southwesterly winds will help raise temperatures 5F to 10F into the 70s and 80s for many locations, with 60s in the higher elevations. Wind speeds taper off Thursday night as the atmosphere decouples with stronger speeds on tap for Friday to begin the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Numerical model guidance continues to unfortunately show the track of a late week system stay to the north of NM and over the CO Rockies. This will yield a dry and windy and fire growth pattern across the Land of Enchantment. This system, anchored by a ~100kt H3 jetmax on its southeastern periphery will quickly produce strong southwesterly winds across the state early Friday. These stronger winds gusting 45 to 55 mph will first focus over the central mountain chain before spreading to surrounding lower elevations early Friday afternoon. The Pacific portion of the cold front will bring a sharp northwesterly wind shift to the Four Corners region first near midday before advancing south and eastward across the state reaching the central mountain chain and highlands in the early evening. As such, southwesterly winds will begin to taper off first over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso, becoming focused along the Sangre de Cristo's and over the central highlands Friday evening, veering west to northwest during this time. This will be where the strongest wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored to occur, notably along the central and northeastern highlands and plains. Thereafter, winds will taper off nearly all areas late Friday evening and night. The exception looks to be the central highlands where subsidence behind the front bringing down locally stronger H7 winds will likely keep strong westerly to northwesterly winds going a bit closer to midnight Friday night. The Pacific and backdoor portions of the cold front meet across eastern NM, advancing southward together thru the night with winds lessening area wide thru Saturday morning. A sharp drop in temperatures aided by lessening winds and very low Td's in the single-digits to near zero will allow for some very cold low temperatures Saturday morning. Lows in the teens and low 20s across the western and northern third of the state will threaten a hard freeze, capable of killing early season blooms that awoke too early from March's record heat wave. A soft freeze will also favor areas in the middle Rio Grande Valley in Albuquerque and much of the east-central plains from Tucumcari to Clovis, as well as the San Francisco River Valley from Luna to Glenwood. Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s across the area Saturday afternoon with pleasant weather conditions. Winds veer out of the south Sunday bringing a warm up and increased moisture and humidity to the area to end the weekend. This will only yield a modest increase in precipitation chances Sunday and Monday with afternoon virga showers favored for the most part. Tuesday sees forecast confidence plummet as a significant closed low swirls over or just offshore CA. Model guidance is having a notably hard time resolving the evolution and track of this system given its complex and dynamic structure. Nevertheless, increased winds and precipitation chances currently looked favored to enter the region sometime during the middle portion of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails today as light prevailing winds this morning yield to breezy westerlies this afternoon, generally gusting 15 to 25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will be present over eastern NM today with modest breezy winds this afternoon. A fire growing pattern returns Thursday ahead of a potent storm system expected to track north of NM Friday. Critical fire weather conditions will favor the northeastern highlands and plains where strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will be present. Minimum humidity falling below 10 percent will allow for elevated to locally critical conditions elsewhere across the state. Much stronger southwesterly winds will expand critical fire weather condtions to a majority of the state Friday, especially along and east of the central mountain chain where gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored. A sharp westerly to northwesterly wind shift will follow a fast moving cold front northwest to southeast across the state Friday afternoon and evening. This will usher in a sharp drop in temperatures and dewpoints, allowing for a very cold night with subfreezing temperatures for the northwestern half of the state by Saturday morning. Winds lessen Friday night and Saturday, ending the critical fire weather threat. Temperatures rebound and warm up Sunday and Monday alongside an influx of moisture and better overnight recoveries into the region. Another round of stronger winds looks favored at some point Tuesday or Wednesday next week ahead of an approaching strong Pacific storm system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 35 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 22 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 25 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 64 28 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 61 30 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 60 34 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 28 71 30 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 54 25 61 31 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 33 63 38 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 28 54 32 / 5 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 55 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 62 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 61 32 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 33 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 35 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 39 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 71 40 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 36 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 40 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 34 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 65 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 61 31 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 65 29 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 29 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 69 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 39 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 38 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 42 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 77 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 78 42 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 39 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 80 43 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 73 42 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 71 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24