FXUS65 KABQ 152320 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles Thursday and especially Friday, mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday and Friday to northeast and east-central NM, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A tranquil afternoon and evening continues across New Mexico as weak west to northwest flow entrenches the state. A few northwest breezes are likely to continue through the afternoon, but will subside by sunset. Tonight looks to be clear and cool (lows in the high 30s to mid 20s) , though should be a few degrees warmer than last night given higher pressure heights and weak upper level flow preventing prime radiational cooling. Thursday turns more active with two approaching trough axes from the west. The more northern trough axis, located over UT, looks to develop a surface low in eastern CO, extending down into northeast NM. Alongside this, a minor but noted pressure gradient increases at 500mb and 700mb. These factors combined look to bring breezy to windy conditions across the state, most notably in eastern NM. Well- mixed atmospheric layers should bring about no issue in transferring the elevated 700mb flow (~30kts) to the surface. Overall, winds look to be southwest 15-25mph, except 20-30mph in northeast NM with gusts up to 40mph. Relative humidity also looks to drop into the single digits across the state, and that combination of wind and dry conditions leads to favorable conditions of rapid fire spread. Continue to be mindful about preventing sparks when outdoors. Temperatures also look to remain in the low to mid 70s across western and central NM and getting as high as the mid 80s across eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Not a whole lot of rest and reprieve from the winds going into early Friday morning. A 250mb speed max, associated with the more southern trough axis mentioned in the short term, starts to encroach from the south into the forecast area. In turn, 500mb and 700mb winds also increase from south to north over time through Thursday night/Friday morning. Thus, the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains look to get increased winds early Friday morning with this approaching system. Cross sections also show the potential for mountain waves given a stable temperature layer above the surface in soundings near Ruidoso. While this does not appear favorable for crashing mountain waves, heightened wind speeds are favored across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains near Dunken and Hondo. Gusts between 50- 55mph appear most favorable at the moment. Further north, the northern trough axis continues to move to the east through CO. The placement of each downstream speed max from each axis places northeast NM and southeast CO in an area both in a left exit and right entrance region of upper level jets. As such, a surface low is expected to develop in this area and contribute to windy conditions across much of eastern NM. Alongside this, a strong Pacific front begins to push through western NM as the trough axis traverses the CO/NM border. The combination of the surface low, Pacific front, and stronger 700mb winds (~35-40kts) should yield a windier day across much of the state. Gusts up to 50mph look likely across eastern NM, specifically along the I-40 corridor and on the immediate east slopes of the central mountain chain. There has been a decrease in the forecast wind speeds for Friday on account of a significant decrease in model guidance speeds and where exactly the surface low develops. Should the low develop further north or east, forecast winds in eastern NM would likely continue to decrease. A further south/west and/or stronger low may lead to higher wind speed forecasts. The aforementioned Pacific front and a backdoor front from the surface low look to push through much of NM Friday night into Saturday morning, plummeting temperatures across the area. There is high confidence in widespread temperatures below freezing, with continued high confidence in a hard freeze (<28F). While we are starting to near the average last freeze for some areas, the record warm March along with very recent rainfall has allowed for abundant blooming of plants and folks starting irrigation processes. A Freeze Watch will more likely than not be needed within the next day or two. Start preparing to protect your plants, pipes, pets and people! Weak ridging looks to build over the state through the weekend, bringing in calmer conditions mainly on Saturday. The orientation of the ridge looks to induce weak southerly flow on Sunday, producing a favorable pattern for a weak influx of moisture. A few gusty virga showers and light rain look possible for Sunday, though with only low to moderate confidence. Forecast confidence continues to decrease moving into next week as a potent low spins off the coast of CA. When and where it moves ashore will spell what impacts it will bring to NM, though a windy pattern with bouts of precipitation appear possible (low confidence). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West northwest winds across the area taper off around sunset with clear skies overnight. Increasing upper and mid level clouds from west to east during the day Thursday. Increasing south and southwest winds areawide beginning late morning into the afternoon hours. Strongest winds across northeast NM and around KGUP with peak gusts of 30 to 35 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY... Critical fire weather conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday afternoon across eastern NM, where a Red Flag Warning and a Fire Weather Watch have been issued respectively. Southwest winds begin to increase through the early afternoon Thursday, mainly around 20-30mph and gusting to 40mph. Winds outside of the RFW likely will remain 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph. Single-digit humidity hours is one of the main stories for Thursday, with upwards of 9 hours across much of the RFW area. For Friday, winds are forecast to be stronger and have a more westerly component with gusts up to 50mph, and the humidity values are forecast to be slightly higher (8-12% rather than 5-9%) with a few hours less of single-digit humidity. Even with that, still expecting widespread critical fire weather conditions across the FWW area. Confidence has decreased slightly in the strength of the winds with the newest model guidance along with when a backdoor front will shift the winds out of the north across eastern NM. For both Thursday and Friday, ERCs remain around the 50-75th percentile after last weekend's rainfall, which is the limiting factor for not including anywhere west of the central mountain chain in fire highlights. Winds and RH will still be near critical threshold, but confidence is not high enough for including those locations. Saturday looks to be much calmer, albeit a much colder morning given the passage of the backdoor front. A few gusty virga showers and sprinkles are possible in western NM Sunday, though with low to moderate confidence. A Pacific storm system looks to approach sometime during the middle of next week, bringing winds and precipitation, though there is low confidence in any details at the moment. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 72 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 67 32 57 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 31 69 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 67 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 71 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 71 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 76 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 60 31 51 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 38 67 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 64 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 54 32 49 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 21 61 26 56 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 25 68 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 67 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 74 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 68 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 80 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 78 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 80 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 79 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 73 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 70 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 73 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 69 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 72 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 70 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 70 37 64 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 29 73 34 67 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 30 75 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 70 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 78 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 36 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 43 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 43 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 37 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...71