FXUS61 KAKQ 170458 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1258 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No major forecast changes. Rain chances increased for Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail this aftn/early evening. Still warm, but slightly cooler Friday with a few light showers possible. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front but will be dependent on rainfall Sunday. 3) Well above normal temperatures and dry weather continue Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a higher chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Rainfall amounts are still expected to be 0.10" to 0.20" or less on average. && .DISCUSSION... As of 255 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail this aftn/early evening. Still warm, but slightly cooler Friday with a few light showers possible. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure now centered off the SE CONUS coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the eastern Gulf coast to off the Carolinas. The resulting persistent return flow continues to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime this aftn. Temps are again in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dew pts mostly in the 50s. Winds have been stronger than the past few days, with gusts to 20-25 mph. Additional records may be tied or broken today (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18). Later tonight, as an upper trough approaches from the W, expect increasing clouds and a chc for showers after midnight into NW portions of the FA. The HRRR does show a broken line of showers pushing into central VA, but many of the models remain mostly dry. Given the current drought status and the poor moisture return, have undercut the rain chances, capping them at ~40% across the NW, and only ~20% farther SE for Friday. The NAM does show somewhat higher dew pts and therefore has ~500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE. Still think most areas will stay dry. Slightly cooler with highs in the low- mid 80s N and near the coast , to the mid-upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with some fire weather concerns expected again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor Friday and Saturday. After collaboration with VA State Forestry and NCFS yesterday (Wednesday), another Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect til 8 PM from the VA Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. Today's SPS also includes all of the Peninsula and Suffolk given the stronger SW winds. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC. The IFD statement roughly covers areas where 20-25 mph gusts are co-located with forecast min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. The wind will be less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little precip is expected and min RH values will be around 30% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Wind and RH values will once again be around critical thresholds on Saturday west of the bay (min RH of 25-30% and gusts to perhaps 15- 20 mph). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW Monday. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday, the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and dry weather continue Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a higher chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Rainfall amounts are still expected to be 0.10" to 0.20" or less on average. Not a whole lot of change in the forecast for Saturday. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain, though perhaps a little better with the last 2 model runs. PoPs have increased to likely to categorical (60-80%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. With the front crossing the area during the day, afternoon temps likely drop into the 60s (or even 50s depending on if/where it rains). This could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain continue to increase slightly (60- 80% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. While ensemble means show 0.10-0.20" of rain across much of the area on Sunday, GEFS/EPS/CMCE probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Frost is possible well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1257 AM EDT Friday... VFR is expected to prevail through the 17/06z TAF period. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies early this morning. These clouds are from a passing sfc trough and mid- level shortwave, which could also spark a few isolated showers early Friday morning. The best chances for showers (but still only ~30%) are at RIC between 10-14z. No flight restrictions are expected but continues to include a PROB30 group for situational awareness. Skies gradually clear behind the feature Friday, with perhaps some CU developing near the coast. SW winds become W ~5 kt late tonight and then shift to the NW Friday. A localized onshore wind may develop later in the afternoon for ORF and ECG as a sea breeze attempts to push inland. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. Showers are likely Sunday with the next cold front, along with breezy SSW winds ahead of the front, and N-NW winds behind the front late Sun into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the week with a brief surge in winds tonight into early Friday AM. - Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead of and behind a strong cold front. Breezy, but generally sub-SCA conditions prevail through the late week and the first half of the weekend. Latest obs indicate SW winds of 10 to 15kt with a few gusts to 20kt. Have seen a few gusts around 25kt over land due to day time mixing, so cannot rule out a few gusts of 20-25kt close to where wind is coming off the land. Latest buoy obs indicate seas generally 2-3ft with 3-4ft off of southern Currituck. Waves in the bay are 1-2ft. A weak boundary is set to move through this area later tonight. Pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of it, allowing for a bit of a surge overnight out of the SW. High-res guidance has trended down slightly for this, so thinking winds will fall just short of SCA criteria. Local wind probs for 18kt sustained winds in the bay are 10% or less. Seas may approach 5ft near 20nm off the Eastern Shore, but opted out of a SCA for here as well. Winds drop off fairly quickly tomorrow morning, turning to the west before becoming light and variable. A stronger front is forecast to pass through the area Sunday into Monday. While pre-frontal winds will pick up out of the SW, the stronger winds will be Sunday afternoon and Sunday night out of the NW as strong high pressure builds in and CAA kicks in. Current forecast calls for 20-25kt sustained with gusts around 30kt in the coastal waters and bay. Slightly lower for the rivers and Currituck sound at 15-20kt sustained. Local wind probs do show 50-70% probs for 34kt+ gusts Sunday afternoon for the mouth of the bay and southern coastal waters, so definitely cannot rule out a Gale Warning at this point. NW winds then gradually diminish Monday morning, becoming sub-SCA again by late Monday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Another record high was set at Norfolk today (92). Temps fell a few degrees shy of records elsewhere. Record High Temps for 4/16 - 4/18 Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/16 - 4/18 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...HET/SW MARINE...AC CLIMATE...AJB