FXUS63 KAPX 152331
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
731 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and embedded storms through Thursday.
  Heaviest rainfall is expected later this evening/tonight with
  the potential for another 1"+ near M-55 corridor.

- Break in rain chances Friday before additional showers/storms
  Saturday.

- Much colder temperatures and light snow chances late this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Relatively weak troughing will lift from the central CONUS into the
Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Ridging will temporarily slide
over the region late this week, building high pressure in on Friday.
This will quickly be shunted east as strong troughing punches over
the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. The associated surface cyclone
will track across the Upper Midwest into Canada Friday/Friday night,
swinging a front across the state on Saturday. Surface high pressure
then looks to build in behind this system to start next week.

Forecast Details:

Light showers have blossomed near Saginaw Bay/Lake Huron across
northeast lower this afternoon and are expected to continue into
this evening. Additional rainfall amounts associated with this
activity should stay under 0.25". Showers and storms currently
forming upstream across parts of the Midwest will be the primary
concern. These showers/storms will track east across the lake with
time this evening. While there's still uncertainty in how this will
evolve with time, current confidence is that this activity will work
across areas along and south of M-72 later this evening and tonight.
Once again, the heaviest rain potential is expected along and south
of M-55. Current forecast rainfall ranges from 0.5" to 1" for this
area into Thursday morning with the potential for rainfall amounts
to exceed 1" should any heavier rain/embedded storms track over our
far southern counties. This certainly raises additional flood
concerns across already impacted areas that are extremely sensitive
to more rainfall.

Otherwise, areas of fog are likely again tonight and Thursday
morning as rain chances continue through Thursday afternoon,
although anticipation is that showers on Thursday will be relatively
light. Aforementioned high pressure building in will bring an end to
rain chances, bringing a pleasant day back to the Northwoods on
Friday with sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and even low 70s
across interior northern lower and cooler highs across the eastern
U.P. and along the lakeshores.

Unfortunately for areas impacted by flooding, the break in rain
chances will be brief as additional showers and storms are expected
on Saturday as the front swings through -- potentially exacerbating
ongoing flooding/recovery efforts. A drastic airmass change is in
store behind the front, plummeting temperatures into the 20s and
30s Saturday night and lasting into early next week. Forecast
profiles currently appear on the dry side, but light snow chances
will return to the forecast on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Cigs/vsbys will worsen tonight, as low clouds/stratus expands,
and as -SHRA move in from the sw. Already LIFR at CIU/PLN/APN,
and IFR/LIFR will expand into TVC/MBL by midnight. Best chance
of TSRA will be at MBL tonight. Conditions will improve
Thursday afternoon. Light northerly breezes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...JZ