FXUS61 KBGM 150454
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1254 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. Adjusted precipitation and
thunder changes for tomorrow, as guidance continues to show a
later onset time of strong to severe storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe storms are expected tomorrow, starting in
the late afternoon to evening. The main threat will be strong to
damaging winds.

2) The warm pattern through the week will break down late in the
weekend, with much colder air arriving in the late weekend, and
extending into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will be similar to yesterday, as the area maintains under
the ridge flow pattern with shortwaves and MCS' continuing to
ride along the ridge. We're currently monitoring the MCS in
Michigan, which will be the driver of some early morning
convection around sunrise. Ahead of the approaching system,
there's a small pocket of CAPE in Western NY that bleeds a
little into our western counties for this forecast area. This
will likely lead to a line of storms approaching and pushing
into the area from the west, but will likely fizzle slowly out
as it moves across mainly Central NY and the Twin Tiers.

Going into the afternoon, models continue to show that there
will be more CAPE than yesterday (>1000J/kg of surface CAPE)
and better shear (>40 knots of 0-6 km shear). If the timing of
the mid level wave that triggers the storms is like the current
model guidance is showing (in the late afternoon to evening),
strong to severe storms are likely, and isolated supercells are
possible. SPC maintains a Marginal risk across most of Central
NY and NE PA for this potential, with a Slight Risk nearby in
Central PA. The main potential threats with Wednesday's storms
will be strong to isolated damaging winds, some hail, and
training storms bringing heavy downpours that could cause
isolated flooding. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive
rain, and isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast
area for the late afternoon through the overnight hours.

We will still be in this warm SW flow pattern going into
Thursday, with frequent shortwaves bringing rainfall and
afternoon storms. Better forcing arrives late in the day along
an incoming cold front. There is uncertainty in the amount of
CAPE that ultimately materializes, but with temperatures back in
the mid-70s to low 80s, and dew points in the low 60s,
instability could again reach moderate levels (1000 J/kg +).
This time period will need to be watched closely as 0-6km shear
remains elevated between 40-50 kts once again over the region.

After the cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday
morning, there will be some lingering showers and a chance for
a few storms through the day on Friday. However, overall
instability and shear are forecast to be much lower on Friday.
Temperatures will also come down some, with highs in the mid-60s
to mid-70s expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

While this warm, early summer-like pattern persist through the
first half of the weekend, the late weekend into early next
week has continued to trend cooler, thanks to a trough digging
into our area. With the Great Lakes likely warming up some over
the rest of this week, it is possible they would be warm enough
to generate lake effect snow shower activity with this pattern,
as temperature differentials exceed 15C from the lake surface
up to the 850mb level.

With the anomalously cold air mass in place it appears daytime highs
may stay in the 30s to low 40s on Monday. Very cold overnight lows
in the 20s are then expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It
then appears a gradual moderating trend will take hold Tuesday into
the middle of next week.

As of now, the pattern with the cold is looking dry (outside of lake
effect).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of shower and storms are currently moving through NEPA
and the Catskills and should be out of the area in the next
couple of hours. Looks like we should get some IFR restrictions
to return to RME tonight. SYR and ITH have some signals for IFR,
but confidence is not high enough to include IFR at this time
and went with MVFR.

Another round of showers and isolated storms looks to push
through the area in the morning. Chances for storms look to be
the best for ELM/ITH/BGM with SYR showing some chances but
morning fog and clouds may hinder storms making it that far
north. There will be a lull in activity from late morning to mid
afternoon before another round of showers and storms is expected
to develop. Best chances for storms will be at ELM/ITH/BGM where
conditions look more favorable. IFR visby will be possible with
these storms but with location and timing still very uncertain,
did not include them in the TAFs. SYR and RME look to quickly
get on the cool side of the boundary these storms will fire on
and have rain and MVFR ceilings. AVP may see storms as well, but
those would be after this TAF period.


Outlook:

Wednesday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with
showers and storms late in the day Saturday.

Sunday... Restrictions possible from showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC