FXUS64 KBMX 150338
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

 - Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent
   dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at
   times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

 - Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week
   with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought
   conditions will worsen.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

Water vapor imagery reveals another active evening across the
country as a series of shortwaves rip across the Plains. Upper
ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this
activity away from the region. The ridge will begin to retreat to
the south as another shortwave peels across the Plains Wednesday
into Thursday. This will open a brief window during the day
Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence
is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too
impressive. Once again, "drought begets drought". Upper ridging
quickly builds back in as the shortwave pushes off the east coast.

As we head into the weekend, a stout upper low lifts across the
Plains towards the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will
be sent our way, moving into our NW areas Saturday night and
clearing our SE counties Sunday afternoon. Our rain chances look a
bit more favorable with this system as our latest suite of guidance
hints at a healthier plume of moisture pooling across the region. We
will continue with a mention of low to moderate (20-60%) rain
chances late Saturday through Sunday morning. Much drier air quickly
filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head
into the work week. This will likely lead to some increased fire
weather concerns early next week.

Our warming trend will continue over the next several days. Highs
each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks
to be the warmest day as several locations have a 30-70% chance of
exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken
as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF
EFI/SOT guidance continues to hint at an anomalous heat event for
this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will
likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. The
one exception will be a brief period of MVFR vis at TCL around
sunrise. We have seen this develop the last couple mornings so
would expect this to happen once again since we have not seen a
pattern change. Otherwise, light winds overnight will increase to
around 10 knots through the morning hours tomorrow.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head
through the week. MinRHs on Wednesday will drop into the 25-35%
range once again. Moisture slightly increases Thursday and Friday
with minRH vales from 30-40%. However, ongoing drought conditions
will contribute to an elevated fire weather threat. Winds will be
a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance
of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in
place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move
through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance
for showers and storms. Significantly drier air moves into the
region in the wake of the front. We will need to keep a close eye
on our fire weather threat as RH values are forecast to fall into
the 20-30% range early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 15:
KBHM: 88/1936
KEET: 85/2012
KANB: 89/1972
KTCL: 88/1972
KMGM: 91/1972

April 16:
KBHM: 89/1977
KEET: 84/2013
KTCL: 90/1955
KMGM: 90/1925

April 17:
KBHM: 90/1955
KEET: 86/2013
KTCL: 92/1955
KMGM: 90/1955

April 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  85  56  85 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    57  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  59  86  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  56  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      56  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      59  86  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  56  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        56  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo