FXUS61 KBOX 141711 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 111 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from the coast, with scattered late day/early evening thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather. - Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up. - More seasonable temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from the coast, with scattered thunderstorms & a low risk of severe weather. Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Today and Wednesday away from both coasts, as strong subtropical ridge builds over the region from the Gulf. All hi res guid has highs both days easily reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland (+18C to +20C at 925 mph). Any early morning fog will burn off rapidly. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient supports cooling seabreezes for the immediate coastal areas, with temps dropping into the 50s to around 60. However, locations such as Boston and eastern MA, late morning/early afternoon seabreeze may give way to a warmer wind shift to the SSW after 18z/19z, as low level southwest jet traverses the region. This would yield a late day high temp, after 4/5pm. We continue to monitor the potential for severe storms during late afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly 2 PM to 10 PM (highest probs 4-8pm). Low amplitude s/wvs moving through the westerly flow, only yielding weak forcing for ascent, which is evident by the lack of height falls from each of these s/wvs. However, modest mixed layer CAPE up to 1000 j/kg, modest mid level lapse rates around 6.5C/KM and 0-6km shear up to 45 kt, providing sufficient instability and shear to compensate for the lack of strong forcing. This is reflective by hi res guid offering 2-5km updraft helocity tracks into western-central MA/CT, along with highest probabilities of lightning. Convection will weaken as it traverses eastward into RI and eastern MA. Not expecting a widespread severe weather, but can't rule out a few isolates storms that approach severe in western-central CT/MA. Given the shear and instability, along with steep low level lapse rates, strong to damaging winds will be the main threat. As previous forecaster noted, atmosphere still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed, although the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. Severe risk is lower on CSU and SPC HREF with axis shifted farther south into CT/RI and south of the Mass Pike. While overall severe threat remains low, we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail. KEY MESSAGE 2...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up. Temp forecast becomes more uncertain later this week, as short wave energy riding up and over the top of the subtropical ridge, may be strong enough to lower heights and have a backdoor front enter SNE, especially northeast MA. However, at this time range, low predictability regarding the amplitude of individual short waves and attending surface boundaries/backdoor fronts. Thus, certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time. Showers and thunderstorms could be more widespread Friday, as multi model guidance suggest a more robust mid level short wave moving across the Northeast into New England. KEY MESSAGE 3...More seasonable temperatures early next week. As expected, difficult to sustain temps 20+ degs warmer than normal in April, thus good multi model agreement (especially at this time range) that a strong cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers, that could spill into early Monday. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week, with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This Afternoon and Tonight...Moderate confidence in areal coverage of TSRA and timing. VFR. A cold front brings hit-and-miss thunderstorms to areas across western New England late this afternoon into the early evening. This could lead to brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. It bank of low stratus/fog develops off the east coast of MA, which should remain off shore the first half of the night, before inching on shore early Wednesday morning, here flight categories fall to MVFR. SW to S wind today, periodically gusty 15-20 knots. Wind speeds ease overnight, becoming calm in protected areas. Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence. Becoming VFR. A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of SNE and have moderate confidence this remains across NE MA. North of the boundary MVFR with winds E to E. South of the boundary VFR and winds are SW. Showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary between 18z-00z. Overnight becoming IFR to MVFR across most of the region, the only area that could remain low-end VFR is be the lower CT River Valley and points SW. Light southwest wind. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the chance of TSRA and lower clouds Wednesday morning. Will have LLWS tonight between 02z-08z. KBDL Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Have moderate confidence in the timing and coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 220 AM update... High confidence through the end of the week, except across the northern MA waters, where uncertainty is high regarding the timing and position of backdoor front Wednesday through the end of the week. SCA remains in effect for leftover rough seas. Weak pressure gradient will support subsiding seas along with developing seabreezes near shore beginning late Tue morning. Only other issues will be late night/early morning fog and possible late day/evening brief isolated shower/thunderstorm. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming record highs: Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023 Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nocera AVIATION...KJC/Loconto/Dooley MARINE...Nocera CLIMATE...Nocera