FXUS64 KBRO 141833
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
133 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions will continue this week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the
  week.

- Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down
  late this weekend.

- Unsettled weather will return this weekend in association with a
  cold front moving through Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

High pressure over the Gulf will maintain warm, dry, and breezy
weather through the remainder of this week. Above average
temperatures with highs around 90 (80s near the coast) and morning
lows in the low 70s will continue through Saturday. Breezy
southeasterly winds will continue, with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible each afternoon, with the breeziest afternoon being
Friday. These should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but Friday
in particular will continue to be monitored. Rain chances are 10%
or less through Saturday.

At local beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through
at least Wednesday. Gusty winds in conjunction with Friday's new
moon will likely keep the risk elevated through the week.

Persistent southeasterly flow will allow moisture to build into
this weekend. Ensemble PWAT values are forecasted to be greater
than the 90th percentile of climatological normals (1.7- 1.9"). A
cold front expected to sweep through deep South Texas late
Saturday into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and be able to
tap into this moisture, increasing rain chances Saturday night
through Monday. The greatest chance of rain at this time is
Sunday, with moderate chances (40-60%) region wide. Check back
for updates as we continue to refine the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Partly cloudy skies will leave primarily VFR conditions for the
rest of Tuesday afternoon and evening, although brief MVFR cannot
be ruled out under patches of denser cloud cover around 3000 ft
AGL. Southeasterly winds between 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30
kts will continue into the evening. MVFR ceilings will build
overnight and persist into Wednesday morning. Winds decrease
overnight, with gusts around 20 kt, before increasing again mid
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A moderate to fresh onshore breeze will maintain moderate seas into
this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will bring periods of
strong gusts on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20
nm. This will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlines each afternoon, with brief gusts 20 kts or more possible
over the Laguna Madre. This weekend, Small Craft Advisory conditions
are possible behind a cold front with rough seas Sunday into Monday.
There is an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday
night through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  87  73  88 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               70  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 74  91  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  92  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  79  74  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  85  71  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK