FXUS64 KCRP 150615 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate risk of rip currents and periods of minor coastal flooding will persist, increasing towards the end of the week - Very warm to hot conditions through Saturday. Much cooler Sunday/Monday - Rain chances return this weekend with an approaching cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dryline remains west of the area for the remainder of tonight, and convection should remain west and north of our area through the night, though a storm or two could approach northern Webb county toward sunrise. Similar to Tuesday morning, would expect a few streamer showers to develop in the Coastal Plains Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning with the persistent onshore flow and moisture convergence near the coast. Mainly trace amounts of rain would be expected but a spotty few hundredths could happen. Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions through Friday. Temperatures will continue to climb a degree or two each day with well above normal temperatures, especially inland where highs in the mid 90s are expected Thursday and Friday. We'll look toward a pattern change this weekend as a cold front moves out of the Rockies, heading our way. A few showers will be possible in the Coastal Plains Saturday morning, but better changes (30-50%) come Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the front. At this time rainfall amounts aren't especially impressive - mainly under half an inch. Where the highest totals are is unclear as guidance differs on how much of the dry air gets this far south. Behind the shallow front, isentropic lift will set up for Monday into Tuesday. Current PoPs for Monday and Monday night sitting around 20-30%, but isentropic lift looks fairly impressive so think we'll see a gradual increase in these over the next few days. As with most isentropic scenarios, accumulation will be light these days. Much cooler temperatures can be expected for Sunday and Monday. Highs will be mainly in the 70s, but with a thick cloud cover, can't rule out some highs in the 60s, especially west. Temperatures will gradually increase Tuesday into Wednesday as onshore flow returns. Continue to watch coastal flooding potential, but at least for tonight through Wednesday we should stay below these levels. A gradual increase in tide levels is expected late in the week, and we could be looking at advisory level conditions Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected tonight with brief periods where they can scatter out resulting in periods of VFR. Predominate VFR conditions are expected tomorrow morning and continuing through the evening. There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings for tomorrow night. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon and decrease after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6) onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions likely. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 85 69 87 69 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 91 72 95 72 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 87 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 73 83 73 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 89 70 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 86 70 88 70 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 73 80 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...JCP/84