FXUS61 KCTP 150535 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 135 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday north of PA Turnpike && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from today onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. This afternoon and evening, a few clusters of thunderstorms could tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to produce isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts. A lack of upper level forcing over Central PA means we will be dependent on surface-based organization associated with a potential MCS to produce a significant/sustained wind threat. The SPC issued an MCD around 2PM for a developing MCS over northeast Ohio. That complex will make its way into Central PA between 5 and 8PM, which is the most likely window for severe weather. The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A relative minimum in thunderstorm activity is expected through the rest of the night, with only a few showers/isolated thunderstorms showing up on radar as of 06Z. These should largely stay away from any TAF sites, but may get close to UNV. Light winds along with some breaks in the clouds has allowed for locally dense fog to develop across parts of Central PA, and IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at BFD and IPT for much of the night. Confidence is low on visibility restrictions developing anywhere else. LLWS is expected at JST, AOO, and possibly UNV for the rest of the night with a 40 knot low-level jet overhead. An ongoing MCS over Michigan will bring the next round of thunderstorms to the region early this morning. These thunderstorms will weaken as they approach the area, but will enter northwest PA around 11Z. BFD and JST are most likely to see showers and thunderstorms as this line moves through. Conditions should improve to VFR through the morning behind this line for all of Central PA with mainly dry conditions and scattered mid and high clouds. West-southwesterly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and into the evening. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Northern and western TAF sites are most likely to see showers and storms later today. Fog formation is possible as rain moves out of the area Wednesday night, with BFD and IPT again being the most likely to see fog. Outlook... Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert