FXUS63 KDDC 151010
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical
  conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283 with
  a Fire Weather Watch in effect.

- A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the
  dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe
  weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook
  east of Coldwater to Great Bend line).

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday
  morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant
  spring storm system.

- Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very
  dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The pattern is headlined by a deep trough situated over the Rockies
and tilted westward with height. The corresponding surface low has
just reach overhead of SW Kansas. The dryline has bisected Kansas
and marginal storms formed along it earlier in the afternoon. With
the exception of Friday, the CWA is forecasted to see more very dry
weather and serious-to-critcal fire weather conditions all week.

Wednesday has highs forecast to be around 10 degrees cooler
than Tuesday before quickly warming back up on Thursday back
into the 80s. Similar to Tuesday, marginally severe storms may
clip the far southeastern portion of the CWA namely Barber
county. Most, if not all, will occur completely east of the
area. With the lower highs, the relative humidities will not
drop as far with only far SW Kansas reaching 10-15%. However,
even with winds blending the 75th-90th via ensembles, gusts
remain shy of fire weather headline criteria.

Thursday will be even drier with relative humidities as low as 7%.
with nearly all of SW Kansas seeing <15%. The biggest question is
if/where winds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warning
criteria. The current forecast only has areas near the CO/KS border
nearing criteria. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday from
noon to 9 PM CDT for the far SW Kansas. Winds are forecast from the
south/southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will
result in serious conditions due to the very dry conditions.

Friday will again host serious fire weather conditions in addition
to a severe weather risk across the eastern zones. Ahead of the
advancing low pressure trough, coupled jets, a warm and moist
airmass, and strong forcing will allow for a potentially widespread
and significant severe weather threat. For the CWA's perspective, a
critical aspect is where the dryline sets up. The current forecast
is that the dryline will reside between Dodge City and Pratt.
Ensembles have agreement situating it near the Highway 183 corridor.
In the coming days, it will be integral to see if this moves, and if
the storms will have enough time in the CWA to mature and reach
severe thresholds before moving eastward out of the area. With the
system, a strong cold front is forecast to drop temperatures
significantly and pushing lows in the western counties towards
or below freezing. Highs Saturday are only forecast to warm up
to the 60s.

Even with the cooler temperatures on Saturday, relative humidities
are still forecast to be very dry down to 8-20%. The next few days
are similar with the main focus solely on fire weather. The 8-20%
relative humidity minimums are expected to linger deep into next
week with winds from 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. With little
to no moisture expected, the dry and fire weather conditions are
forecast to stay for the foreseeable future and pose a tangible
threat. Take proper fire weather precautions all week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

West to northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots can be expected today
across southwest Kansas as a cold front moves south and east of
the area. After 00z Thursday, these winds will decrease to less
than 10 knots and will become southerly after 06z Thursday as a
surface high/ridge builds across western Kansas. VFR conditions
are expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Burgert