FXUS63 KEAX 150529 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1229 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tomorrow and again Friday night. * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Residual cloud cover has mostly mixed out this afternoon with strong surface heating sending temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Strong/deep mixing is starting and dewpoints are starting to drop at Topeka and into east central Kansas. This for now is leading to a fairly diffuse dryline and poor low level convergence. Although high clouds streaming in over Kansas and Oklahoma show at least some signal for an increase in modest large scale ascent in a few hours. ACARS soundings show a modest inversion and modified RAP soundings with ACARS input show a convective temp around 85 to 87 F. Most high resolution guidance sets the strongest part of the dryline up from about Ottawa, KS to St. Joseph, MO by 3 to 5 pm but it looks too diffuse to be a slam-dunk zone for convective initiation. Most CAM guidance initiates convection along the leading edge of an upper level ripple (likely shown by the high clouds in KS/OK) in southeast Kansas by 4 to 5 pm and sends it northeastward into the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening - and that appears to be the most likely scenario. By that time T/Td spreads will be about 25 to 30 degrees with lower level flow at 20 to 30 kts out of the southwest. CAM guidance (again probably reasonably) favors multi-cell clusters that try to organized into a few isolated bowing segments as they move northeastward. This would pose a threat for damaging wind with deeper cores producing a large hail threat given the fairly steep mid level lapse rates and available deep layer shear. Hodographs are favorable enough for some tornado threat, particularly if any cells maintain discrete elements. Rain chances then look to decrease through the overnight. Wednesday the shortwave trough axis currently over the Rockies pushes through the region and sends the cold front currently lagging back over the high Plains towards the area. This looks to create much better shower/storm coverage, as well as sparking things off earlier in the day, with showers and storms becoming more likely by early to mid afternoon. Some severe threat (wind/hail) looks to accompany this activity as well. Although instability/diurnal heating will be more limited by cloud cover and the time of day which may mitigate the threat. The cold front clears the area Wednesday night but we get back into return flow almost immediately on Thursday with dewpoints reloading into the mid 60s. Light low level warm air advection may spark a shower or two in this period but the main focus will be on Friday night into Saturday. A strong/sharp shortwave trough interacts with the exit region of a 120kt or so southwesterly jet maxima moving out of the southern Plains, creating strong ascent and spinning up a 991mb or so surface low in the lee of the Rockies that quickly moves northeastward into the western Great Lakes. There appears to be yet another severe weather threat with this period (SPC maintains a 30% Day 4 risk). Convective mode may be messy however due to strong large scale ascent and low-level kinematics. What does appear likely to be in place is strong deep layer and low-level shear (850 mb winds 50-55kts) with sufficient instability. This period will need to continue to be monitored for the potential for all-modes of severe weather before a strong cold front finally sends the region back to a cooler and more stable pattern through most of the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 TAFs continue to be somewhat messy and uncertain. MVFR ceilings do look likely across the TAF sites late in the current overnight, lingering into late morning/early afternoon before they mix/lift back into VFR. The more uncertain and messy aspect though continues to be convective trends and timing. It is possible to see some budding scattered convection around/after 10z this morning, with genesis near to just E/NE of KSTJ/KMCI. That has been accounted for with a VCTS mention for that time period, and one can expect any activity in their vicinity to pretty quickly drift E/NE. The afternoon/evening convection potential is more certain, but timing remains a bit in flux. With that part in mind, have opted for a TEMPO period to indicate the current best window for storms ahead of and along the frontal passage. VFR conditions return quickly thereafter by around 00z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis