FXUS64 KEPZ 151014 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 414 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 343 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Fair and seasonal today, with lighter winds. Westerly breezes bring in drier air, with plenty of sunshine. - Breezy again Thursday, with another bump in winds Friday. Very dry air, with breezy to windy conditions, will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A frontal boundary moves in for a cooler weekend. Moisture slips in from the east for a low chance of rain on Sunday over areas generally east of the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 958 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Some pesky light showers continue to develop just S of the Int'l border, so PoPs have been adjusted once again to reflect current radar trends. CAMs have struggled mightily with this activity, which should end around midnight. Rain rates will be light as long as precip reaches the sfc. After a breezy to windy few days early this week, a calmer day is forecast for Wed. The shortwave trough ejects into the central Plains, allowing the pressure gradient to loosen. Some lingering breezes are expected with gusts to 20-25 mph in the afternoon under mainly clear skies. A deep upper trough moves into the northern Rockies on Thu, resulting in SW flow through the column. Lee sfc troughing is generated across the central and southern High Plains with breezy southwest winds forecast. The sfc low is nudged SE on Fri as the base of the trough pushes through the southern Rockies, shifting our winds westerly. Fri looks to be the windiest day of the period, approaching advisory level for the high terrain and east slopes. Blowing dust will be a hazard both Thu and Fri. Dry conditions persist, although some higher clouds may stream in from the subtropical jet. Behind the upper trough will be a sidedoor front that looks to arrive Sat AM, bringing some cooler temps and breezy N-NE winds. The sfc high settles to the east early next week, giving us moist, breezy SE flow off the Gulf for a short time. Low rain chances return as a result Sun/Mon, mainly E of the RGV. There is a disagreement in moisture content between the Euro and GFS ensembles with the GEFS more bullish on moisture and rain chances. Most of the moisture is flushed out into midweek as zonal flow aloft returns. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through Fri, then falling to below normal this weekend behind the front. We'll rebound to above average late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals for this forecast cycle. Lighter winds today, but with some afternoon breeziness from the SW and W. Drier air moves in for mostly SKC skies through the forecast period. Winds in the 3-8kt range through 16Z...then increasing to 8-12kts with some gusts to 18-22kt through 02Z...then lighter again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For today we get on the backside of the latest passing Pacific low pressure system and weak surface front, with a more relaxed westerly flow pattern back over the region. This will mean a couple of things: Lighter winds, and much drier air moving in on those lighter winds. Thus, for today, a lot of sunshine, temperatures just a few degrees cooler, and very near the daily averages, and a crashing of the minRH this afternoon. So we lose some of the strength of the winds today, but also push out what little moisture the system brought, and replace it with very dry air, and MinRH dropping back into the teens and single-digits. With ERCs near, or just below, average for the date, and winds a bit lower, the drying won't allow for a sharp elevation in fire weather conditions today. However, this is a ONE DAY break in winds, and we reverse course Thursday, and Friday, with wind speeds trending upward, as yet another Pacific trough begins to press toward the region. On Thursday, our western areas, SW lowlands and Gila/Blackrange, will see elevated fire weather conditions as the next Pacific trough begins to deepen to our west. These areas will see a brief afternoon period with winds approaching RFW criteria, as RH will be very low. Areas to the east will be breezy, but should stay below RFW wind criteria. Friday is the day that shows more potential for critical conditions, as models indicate a potential for stronger winds pushing fire weather conditions into RFW conditions possible over our central and eastern areas. We are considering a RF watch for Friday, but will push that off for another forecast cycle to get a better handle on model consistency. But, heads up that Friday will be the day to exercise caution, and stay ready and alert for the potential for more active fire behavior, and faster fire growth. A dry frontal boundary pushes in from the north early Saturday, as Friday's trough exits into the Midwest. This will turn our winds northerly, and allow them to slacken overnight into the morning on Saturday. Saturday will be dry, and cooler, with less winds, easing fire weather concerns. Sunday we see a fetch of moisture move in over Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso, on return-flow easterly winds. This could allow for some showers to develop over those areas on Sunday. Monday we go back to a deep west flow pattern and flush that moisture back to the east, and return to typical Spring dryness with, seasonal temperatures, and marginally breezy afternoons for much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 51 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 80 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 56 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 40 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 67 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 34 71 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 39 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 72 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 74 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 74 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird