FXUS62 KFFC 150717 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 317 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across north Georgia and portions of central Georgia this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase this weekend, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high pressure regime will maintain its grip over the region today and Thursday. Mid and upper level ridging remains in place over the Southeast, extending from central Gulf towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure underneath is also centered over the western Atlantic. Persistent southwesterly low level flow on the back side of the high continues to bring warm air from the Gulf into central and north Georgia. Low temperatures this morning are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal underneath mostly clear skies, rising to between 10-16 degrees above daily averages and even approaching daily records at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), rising into the mid 80s to low 90s. Minimum RH values this afternoon will drop to the 25-30% range. With very dry fuels and drought conditions, another Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of north Georgia and east-central Georgia. Winds will remain below Red Flag thresholds today. On Thursday, the ridge axis and the surface high will shift further to the east. Both low and high temperatures will remain similar, with record high temperatures possible once again in the afternoon. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving across the Tennessee Valley. With the ridge stretching more to the east, it is possible that isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could spread into far north Georgia. Slight chance PoPs have been introduced in the northern row of counties late Thursday afternoon into the beginning of the long term period. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, stalling before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border as it encounters the ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm and Dry through Saturday: Ensemble guidance generally agrees on the passage of a shortwave trough across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Little (if any) rainfall is expected with this feature, as guidance depicts the attendant moisture scouring out as it encounters the ridging in place (plus a lack of appreciable moisture return ahead of the shortwave across the County Warning Area). Very similar to the previous several forecast packages, the National Blend of Models (NBM) brushes far north Georgia with 15% to 20% rain chances on Thursday night. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday. Better Rain Chances and a Cold Front on Sunday: Ensemble guidance is also in general agreement on a stout longwave trough swinging across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. The low pressure system associated with this feature will drive moisture advection across the Southeast, with precipitable water (PWAT) peaking around the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year. The cold front associated with this system is expected to support showers and possibly thunderstorms across parts of north and central Georgia late Saturday through Sunday morning. That said, whatever rainfall occurs with this weekend system will very likely not be nearly enough to put a dent in the drought conditions. The cold front will bring a noticeable cool-down Sunday and Monday, although model spread is decently high regarding temperatures on Sunday given the frontal passage. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s and lower 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the period, with FEW cu between 050-070 anticipated in the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the early morning, becoming SW at 4-8 kts by 15Z. Winds will diminish after sunset, becoming light and variable once again after 01-02Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 10 Cartersville 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 88 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 87 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King