FXUS65 KFGZ 150834
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
134 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Look for pleasant weather today. Another round of
windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler
temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The
weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below
normal morning lows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry air will spread across northern Arizona today
behind the most recent trough. Pressure gradients will be much
weaker supporting southwest to west winds of 5-15 mph. The air
mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal
averages.

For Thursday through Friday...A fast moving shortwave trough will
brush northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to
stronger winds. Recent model forecasts have shifted the shortwave
a bit further north so winds likely won't be quite as strong as
previously indicated, but still quite uncomfortable. On Thursday,
ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25
mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night
but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction by
early Friday as the trough axis moves eastward. Friday will see
west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph across much
of the area. However, east of a Winslow to Four Corners line winds
at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph will persist. With the
northward shift of the trough the the chances for even an
isolated shower along the Arizona/Utah border are near zero.

From Saturday into early next week...A drier northeast to east
flow will develop Friday night through Saturday. In wind
protected locations above 6,500 feet strong radiational cooling
will present the potential for low temperatures in the upper teens
to mid 20s Saturday morning. Otherwise, look for northeast to
east winds at 5-15 mph across much of the area. However, along and
south of the Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday,
where winds tend to funnel in northeast flow, gusts to 25 mph are
forecast. Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as another
trough will approach Arizona during the day Sunday. As a result,
look for gusty south to southwest winds to return on Sunday into
early next week with warming temperatures both day and night.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/06Z through Thursday 16/06Z...VFR conditions
with light and variable winds through 18Z, then becoming SW-W
5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...VFR conditions.
SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts on Thursday, staying
locally gusty Thursday night. Winds become W-NW 10-20 kts with
gusts 20-30 kts on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures. Look for west to southwest winds at 5-15 mph today,
increasing to 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH
values 10-20% each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Northwest to west
winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Friday becoming northeast
to east at 5-15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph on Saturday. Sunday
will see south winds at 10-25 mph develop as a Pacific low
approaches Arizona. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Friday
turning a bit drier on Saturday at 5-15%, then jumping back to 10-
20% on Sunday in response to the approaching low.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff