FXUS65 KFGZ 152318
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Pleasant weather through the rest of today. Another
round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler
temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry
on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a slight chance for
isolated showers on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Light winds with near-normal temperatures are in store
through the rest of today as the gradient aloft relaxes and heights
recover following the passage of a shortwave trough yesterday. A
much drier airmass is also in place, putting an end to precipitation
chances for the near-term.

Thursday through Friday...A quick shortwave will brush past northern
Arizona. The the trajectory of the disturbance will keep any
precipitation well to our north, and the main impact will be strong
winds. Recent model guidance has maintained a slightly more
northward trajectory, and thus have maintained slightly lower
magnitude of peak gusts. The current forecast calls for gusts to 30-
40 mph on Thursday as the trough approaches. Friday afternoon
will see cooler daytime temperatures along with west to northwest
winds gusting up to 25 mph across much of the area, however gusts
up to 30-40 mph are possible in far eastern AZ.

Saturday and beyond...A dry northeast flow will develop into
Saturday. Temperatures will be chilly on Saturday morning, falling
into the teens to mid 20s for high elevation sites that are
protected from wind. Another shortwave trough will approach AZ on
Sunday, bringing breezy southerly winds, higher dewpoints, and
even a chances for isolated showers. A deeper Pacific trough looks
to come onshore sometime early-middle next week, but there is
plenty of spread in the track and timing, and confidence is low in
the impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 16/00Z through Friday 17/00Z...VFR conditions
with W-SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z.
Expect SW winds 10-20 kts gusting to 25-35 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 17/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR conditions.
N-NW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Friday, shifting to
N-NE Friday night, then becoming NE-E 5-15 kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry conditions and cooler
temperatures. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph
on Thursday, becoming north/northwest 10-15 mph on Friday. Minimum
RH 10-20% each day.

Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a
slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds
north/northeast 5-15 mph on Saturday, shifting south/southeast on
Sunday, then southerly on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on
Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff