FXUS65 KFGZ 150515
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers continue into Tuesday evening as the
current storm system moves eastward. Another round of windy
weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures
Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks
dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning
lows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Much cooler weather has arrived following the
passage of last night's low pressure system. Mid day temperatures
were in the 40s at mountain locations with 50s at lower elevations.
Although the main low has moved into western Colorado, a trailing
shortwave will bring the potential for isolated showers for the
remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening from around
the Mogollon Rim northward. Any rain showers that develop could be
mixed with graupel down to near 6000 feet elevation.

Wednesday - a shortwave ridge moves in briefly, bringing
temperatures back near normal and lighter southwest winds of 10-15
mph.

Thursday and Friday - another trough is forecast to pass by to
our north, bringing southwest winds gusting to 35-45 mph and continued
mild weather Thursday, followed by much cooler temperatures Friday.
Friday's winds will shift to northwesterly gusting 25-35 mph. In
the latest model guidance, the trough passes too far north for precipitation
in Arizona, with PoP values less than 10% along the northern border
Thursday night/Friday. Very dry air behind this shortwave and decreasing
winds could lead to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in well
over a month on Saturday morning at high country locations. If you live
above 5000 feet you should plan on protecting any outside plants
and/or disconnecting hoses. The rest of the weekend looks dry with
a warming trend. Southwest winds may increase again early next
week as another low approaches the southwest United States, but
there is still plenty of spread in the track and timing of the
system so confidence is low right now.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/06Z through Thursday 16/06Z...VFR conditions
with light and variable winds through 18Z, then becoming SW-W
5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...VFR conditions.
SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts on Thursday, staying
locally gusty Thursday night. Winds become W-NW 10-20 kts with
gusts 20-30 kts on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions with
seasonable temperatures. Winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph
on Wednesday, then increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30-45 mph on
Thursday. Minimum RH is 10-20% each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Winds northwest
through west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph on Friday, becoming
variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday, then turning south through
southwest on Sunday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Friday, then a bit
drier at 10-15% on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff