FXUS64 KFWD 151101 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 601 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon. There is a risk for strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds in portions of North Texas. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overall, expect a temporary period of quieter weather as latest radar trends and high-resolution model guidance back away from much precipitation within North and Central Texas through this morning. Much of the lingering storms down near the Big Bend are expected to weaken and dissipate as they advance northeast into more stable air. We cannot rule out that some of the remnants from these storms make it further into North Texas near daybreak, allowing for some light morning rain, but this scenario is looking more unlikely. We will continue to carry a mention of PoPs for the northwestern half of the CWA through morning for this low potential. Otherwise, the next window of convective development will be over the afternoon into the evening as a shortwave disturbance moves across the Plains. Once again, scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline to our west and move northeast late this afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for strong to severe storms in our northwestern counties, with the main threats of large hail and damaging winds. Low-level wind fields look to be unfavorable for much of a tornado threat this afternoon, however we'll keep an eye on this potential going through the rest of the day. Further east of the dryline towards the I-35 corridor, there remains the potential for scattered warm-sector showers and storms, though exact locations and coverage remain more uncertain. The severe threat is lower with this eastern activity, but any more robust storms that develop would carry a threat for hail and winds. Similar to days prior, convection will wane with the loss of daytime heating, though cannot rule out some lingering rain in our northeast going into Thursday morning as the shortwave moves past. The rest of the day Thursday will be warm, muggy, and mostly dry as upper-level ridging builds in between our departing shortwave and the parent trough to the west. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The parent trough will continue to spread towards the Plains on Friday, shunting the ridge east and sending the system's attendant cold front south. Out ahead of the front, a deepening lee-side surface low will promote breezy conditions throughout the day Friday. The front is progged to move through North and Central Texas early Saturday, bringing breezy north winds and cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. Enough moisture is expected to pool near and along the boundary to allow for scattered showers and storms as the front pushes south. The severe weather threat is fairly low overall at this time, however, steep lapse rates and enough present instability may promote a couple more robust storms capable of small hail and strong winds. The higher severe threat would remain generally to our north closer to the greatest lift from the system. Expect cooler conditions to persist into early next week. Model guidance continues to highlight the potential for additional rain chances early next week as a disturbance moves across the Southern Plains, but it is too early to hash out specifics. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR cigs have spread across the region, and are expected to persist until closer to 18Z where they will finally lift back to VFR. Southerly winds are expected to increase in speed and gust this afternoon, remaining elevated (between 10-15 kts) the rest of the period. Scattered showers and storms remain possible this afternoon, with the timing of potential impacts between 21-01Z for the airports. The thunder potential for D10 remains low and uncertain due to spotty coverage and convective development, while greatest chances for thunderstorms will likely impact the Bowie cornerpost during this time. Have persisted with a mention of VCSH late afternoon in D10, and have added VCTS for ACT where the thunder probabilities are higher. We will continue to watch for increasing lightning potential this afternoon and amend as necessary. Any precipitation will dissipate over this evening, with another round of MVFR stratus likely a couple hours prior to daybreak. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0 Waco 81 67 85 66 / 50 30 0 0 Paris 79 65 83 65 / 50 50 10 0 Denton 79 65 86 65 / 50 20 0 10 McKinney 78 67 85 67 / 50 30 0 0 Dallas 81 67 87 68 / 50 30 0 0 Terrell 81 67 85 66 / 50 40 0 0 Corsicana 83 69 87 69 / 50 40 0 0 Temple 82 68 87 67 / 40 30 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 88 65 / 50 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater