FXUS64 KFWD 152342 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm activity will continue across parts of western North Texas for the next few hours with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Three severe-warned supercells continue their trek east- northeastward across the northwestern parts of our forecast area this evening. 1-1.5" hail and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary hazards for the next 1-2 hours before these cells start to show signs of weakening as convective inhibition increases beyond sunset. Thunderstorm activity will either diminish or exit our forecast area to the north-northeast by 10-11PM tonight with isolated showers remaining a possibility beyond midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another cloudy and breezy start of the day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 70s early this afternoon. Recent radar imagery shows light rain/drizzle across portions of North and Central Texas. This is associated with a passing mid-level wave and a moist environment in the lower levels. For this afternoon and evening, we're monitoring two areas for showers/storms to develop. First, we will have our typical WAA showers and storms across Central Texas. This activity should remain sub-severe with occasional lightning as the main threat. The second area we're watching is our northwestern counties and along the Red River. More organized storms are expected to develop near/along a dryline to our west and move into portions of our area through the afternoon and evening. While coverage of severe storms is still uncertain, some of them will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is lower, but it can't completely be ruled out. Storms may merge into a cluster as they move eastward through North Texas this evening. The best potential for severe storms is expected to remain generally along/north of US-380, but we can't rule a storm or two farther south (near the I-20/I-30 corridor) that could remain strong and/or severe. Our confidence remains lower with the southward extend of this activity as our environment remains more stable. After this activity weakens and/or moves out of our area around midnight, quiet weather is expected the rest of the night with low clouds returning Thursday morning. Overall, quiet weather is expected tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 80s and clearing skies. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The long-term portion of the forecast continues to highlight the well anticipated cold front on Saturday followed by quiet weather through Sunday and low rain chances early next week. We will wrap up the week with fairly quiet and warm weather. The upper level trough responsible to push the surface cold front on Saturday will approach the Four Corners with the surface dryline staying far west of our area. We should remain mostly dry but surface winds will increase during the day. The best lift for organized storms is expected to remain to our northwest towards Oklahoma. Outside of the windy conditions, highs will climb into the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The cold front is still expected to arrive to North Texas late Friday night into Saturday morning with showers and storms developing mainly behind the boundary on Saturday. A cooldown will follow as well with breezy northerly winds continue all day Saturday. This will keep temperatures in the 60s during the day and overnight lows in the 40s Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler weather and dry weather will persist on Sunday, but we could see rain chances coming back to the region early next week. A few upper level disturbances are forecast to swing by the southern Plains and could bring some scattered activity through at least mid-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 We are monitoring three severe-warned supercells west of the Metroplex that will continue trekking east-northeastward over the next few hours. Tracking the southern cell puts it in central/southern Denton County ~0200-0215Z this evening (if it sustains). High-resolution guidance continues to favor a weakening in this activity in the next 1 to 1.5 hours with both the nocturnal increase in convective inhibition and the interaction with an environment marked by widespread cloud cover all day today. Thus, we will keep a VCTS group for the Metroplex TAFs from 01Z-04Z this evening, with the best potential for nearing TSRA at KAFW and KDFW. Some scattered shower activity has also started developing across the western part of the Metroplex in the last 30 minutes. Otherwise, breezy south winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts at times will prevail through much of the TAF period. MVFR cigs will return to North and Central Texas Thursday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested along and north of the I-20/I-30 corridor and west of I-35 through the evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 87 67 85 / 30 10 10 10 Waco 67 84 67 86 / 30 0 0 0 Paris 65 82 65 82 / 60 10 10 10 Denton 64 87 66 83 / 40 10 10 10 McKinney 66 85 67 83 / 40 10 10 10 Dallas 68 87 67 85 / 30 0 0 10 Terrell 66 84 67 84 / 40 10 0 10 Corsicana 68 86 68 88 / 40 0 0 0 Temple 67 86 67 88 / 30 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 88 65 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Langfeld