FXUS64 KFWD 150649 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon. There is a risk for strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds in portions of North Texas. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overall, expect a temporary period of quieter weather as latest radar trends and high-resolution model guidance back away from much precipitation within North and Central Texas through this morning. Much of the lingering storms down near the Big Bend are expected to weaken and dissipate as they advance northeast into more stable air. We cannot rule out that some of the remnants from these storms make it further into North Texas near daybreak, allowing for some light morning rain, but this scenario is looking more unlikely. We will continue to carry a mention of PoPs for the northwestern half of the CWA through morning for this low potential. Otherwise, the next window of convective development will be over the afternoon into the evening as a shortwave disturbance moves across the Plains. Once again, scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline to our west and move northeast late this afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for strong to severe storms in our northwestern counties, with the main threats of large hail and damaging winds. Low-level wind fields look to be unfavorable for much of a tornado threat this afternoon, however we'll keep an eye on this potential going through the rest of the day. Further east of the dryline towards the I-35 corridor, there remains the potential for scattered warm-sector showers and storms, though exact locations and coverage remain more uncertain. The severe threat is lower with this eastern activity, but any more robust storms that develop would carry a threat for hail and winds. Similar to days prior, convection will wane with the loss of daytime heating, though cannot rule out some lingering rain in our northeast going into Thursday morning as the shortwave moves past. The rest of the day Thursday will be warm, muggy, and mostly dry as upper-level ridging builds in between our departing shortwave and the parent trough to the west. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The parent trough will continue to spread towards the Plains on Friday, shunting the ridge east and sending the system's attendant cold front south. Out ahead of the front, a deepening lee-side surface low will promote breezy conditions throughout the day Friday. The front is progged to move through North and Central Texas early Saturday, bringing breezy north winds and cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. Enough moisture is expected to pool near and along the boundary to allow for scattered showers and storms as the front pushes south. The severe weather threat is fairly low overall at this time, however, steep lapse rates and enough present instability may promote a couple more robust storms capable of small hail and strong winds. The higher severe threat would remain generally to our north closer to the greatest lift from the system. Expect cooler conditions to persist into early next week. Model guidance continues to highlight the potential for additional rain chances early next week as a disturbance moves across the Southern Plains, but it is too early to hash out specifics. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR stratus is now making its way into Central Texas, and should blanket all of the TAF sites by 08-09Z. MVFR cigs will persist through much of the morning before gradually lifting back to VFR this afternoon, accompanied by breezy southerly winds. While the chances for daybreak showers continue to diminish, there will be a chance for scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two later this afternoon in portions of North and Central Texas, with the main timing generally between 20-01Z. There is still enough uncertainty and low probabilities with thunder potential to forego inclusion in the TAFs at this time, but this will need to be watched carefully today. Any precipitation in the vicinity will dissipate this evening. Another round of MVFR stratus is likely going into Thursday morning, and this has been added into the extended DFW TAF. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0 Waco 81 67 85 66 / 50 30 0 0 Paris 79 65 83 65 / 50 50 10 0 Denton 79 65 86 65 / 50 20 0 10 McKinney 78 67 85 67 / 50 30 0 0 Dallas 81 67 87 68 / 50 30 0 0 Terrell 81 67 85 66 / 50 40 0 0 Corsicana 83 69 87 69 / 50 40 0 0 Temple 82 68 87 67 / 40 30 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 88 65 / 50 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater