FXUS63 KGID 152345 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing spotty showers and weak thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of the daytime heating this evening. - Widespread critical fire weather expected on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area for the afternoon through late evening hours. - Strong northerly winds (peak gusts around 40-45 MPH) are likely on Friday behind a cold front. - Friday's cold front will bring seasonably cold air in for the weekend. However, with such a mild late winter/early spring and fast start to the growing season, will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM because of near or slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 It's been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don't expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in only the strongest of cores. Models haven't really been handling this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S. Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F. Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time. Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by. Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme SE zones, but this could be generous. Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn't overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze isn't until last week of April or first week of May for all but our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3 weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention to the cold temperatures. The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Cloud cover from a lingering cluster of showers/storms off to the ESE of KGRI is keeping some mid-level clouds around to start off...with skies then clearing off for much of the remainder of this period. Winds are on the variable side early this evening, but are expected to turn south-southwesterly and remain that way through the rest of the period. Thursday afternoon, wind gusts near/exceeding 30 MPH are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Truly appreciable rain has been hard to come by this spring, and the near-term trends don't look any better. As a result, and because spring green- up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for more fire weather concerns. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Critical fire weather conditions will return in earnest as a surface low pressure system deepens to our west and southerly winds increase to solidly- breezy levels. Expect commonly sustained winds around 20 MPH and gusts 30-35 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent - lowest W of Hwy 281. As a result, a Red Flag Warnings has been issued for Thursday afternoon through late evening for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that diurnal RH improvement during the evening will be quite a bit slower than usual. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Thies