FXUS63 KGID 150530 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind gusts 25-35 mph) - Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or just after sunset. - Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM across south central Nebraska could also become severe with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. - Friday's storm system will likely send a cold front through early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe weather threat east of our forecast area. - Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day) - Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday. - Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you already plant your tomatoes (better cover them). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Can't rule out some isolated-scattered showers over the next few hours, but the better chances tonight look to remain focused to the southeast of the terminal areas. Have VFR conditions the rest of tonight...with winds remaining north-northeasterly around 10-15 MPH. During the daytime hours today, another round of showers/storms will push east through the area, mainly from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. With uncertainties with the overall coverage, kept the mention in a PROB30 group. Also included in that mid-morning through early afternoon group is the potential for MVFR ceilings...though latest run of models have backed off that potential a touch. Precip expected to end by late afternoon, with the rest of this period dry. Winds during the day are expected to turn more northwesterly, then more westerly...some gusts near 25 MPH are not out of the question. Evening hours will bring the potential for more variable wind direction. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset. Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area. THURSDAY: We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat, drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon- early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH. Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon. We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but wanted to get through today's Red Flag Warning first before issuing for Thursday. FRIDAY-MONDAY: There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get cooler. The airmass behind Friday's system is dry and RH values will continue to be at least near critical. There could be enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during this period for some areas. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Wesely