FXUS65 KGJT 151118 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 518 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys Wednesday morning where a Freeze Warning is in place. A Freeze Watch is in effect for a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. - After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and high valley snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite imagery and radar show the low that transited the region this afternoon is now moving over the Front Range and out onto the Plains. Convective activity has for the most part ended under subsidence behind the low with only light orographic showers continuing, primarily along the western and northwestern faces of rising terrain. Look for these showers to diminish overnight with only a few lingering into the morning hours along the higher peaks of the central Colorado Mountains. As the system moves out, sub-freezing temperatures are likely overnight through Wednesday morning for most lower valleys with the exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east-central and southeast Utah. Thus a Freeze Warning for these areas is in place through 9 AM. The growing season is well underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive vegetation if you are impacted. Can't really say a ridge builds in behind the retreating low because the next low pressure system is hot on its heels descending along the British Columbia Coast, and will move in through the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon to keep any ridge knocked down. At most the flow aloft becomes more zonal advecting warm air into the region to restore temperatures across eastern Utah and Western Colorado to near to a little above normal Wednesday, warming to five degrees or more above normal Thursday. In spite of these temperatures warming to normal, they remain cooler than we've seen the last week or so, and some areas may continue below the freezing mark with potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), hence we have a Freeze Watch in place for these areas Wednesday night. Stay tuned for an update on this in the morning as the forecast temperatures become more certain. The next system drops in from the northwest Thursday with strong jet support and a tight pressure gradient through the middle atmosphere producing winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in the valleys and 45 to 60 mph in the mountains. These stronger winds and jet are indicative of the strength of the cold front associated with this system having temperatures falling 20 degrees or more behind the front. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front that drops in Thursday evening. These showers will push southeast to I-70 through the evening and to the San Juan Mountains overnight into Friday morning with the cold front running three to six hours behind the start of the showers. Look for wide spread showers continuing behind the frontal boundary with snow levels falling 5000 feet. Though the heavy cloud cover Friday morning will keep temperatures in the low to mid 30's, don't be surprised to see snow flakes falling in the Grand Valley through the morning. The widespread showers will diminish west to east through Friday as the upper-level trough moves overhead. Thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon mostly over the mountains as the right entrance region of the jet moves overhead. The moisture associated with this system continues to decline with each run of the models, which is typical with these northwest systems, and hence winter headline are not expected. But with the strong dynamics with this system, brief snow squalls may be possible with the cold front Thursday night, with reduced visibility and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Stay tuned for updates on this possibility. Behind this cold front, a hard freeze is forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see lows in the teens to low 20's with the Grand Valley and other lower valleys seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. Expect headlines for this in the next day or so, but now is the time to start planning for this cold snap. Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues. However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Trapped surface moisture has led to low clouds lingering through the night, and likely will remain in place through 18z this afternoon. For KEGE, KRIL, and KASE, this means ceilings will remain below breakpoints. And occasionally ceilings may lower enough to drop conditions into MVFR/IFR. Showers have mostly come to an end though. Winds remain generally light and terrain driven. After 15z, look for winds to increase and turn westerly to southwesterly. Higher elevation terminals, and those along and north of I-70, will see some gusty afternoon winds, with gusts up to around 20 knots expected. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002-007- 008-011-020>023. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for COZ008-021>023. UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA/DB AVIATION...TGJT