FXUS65 KGJT 161810
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1210 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in some valleys
  tonight, and a widespread hard freeze sets in Friday night.

- A cold front moving through the area will bring rain and snow
  tonight and tomorrow. Accumulations are expected in the
  mountains and possible the valleys.

- Warm weather builds back in this weekend into early next week
  with a return of unseasonably warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

REST OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT

A shortwave trough approaching our area from the northwest has
caused the pressure gradient to tighten so expect gusty winds of 25-
50 mph most of the day. The trough will push a modest cold front
into the area this evening and overnight. That forcing will result
in a band of rain and snow that moves southeastward. The dropping
temperatures behind the front will support a rapid change over to
snow. This along with the wind could end up causing reduced
visibility and icy roadways. The front exits the area around sunrise,
but orographic showers could continue through the afternoon. Snow
amounts did come up a bit from the previous forecasts. This seems
reasonable given the strong forcing and drastic temperature gradient.
Generally the northern and central mountains are looking at about 4-
8 inches. Valleys could end up with a dusting or as high as 4 inches
especially along and north of I-70. Roadways overnight and tomorrow
morning could be icy due to melting and refreezing. Highs tomorrow
will be 20-30 degrees cooler than today. The mountain snow showers
during the day tomorrow could amount to a few inches in spots.
Elsewhere will be dry. The new cold air mass will bring sub-freezing
temperatures to just about all locations. In fact, a hard freeze is
highly probable for all Colorado valleys.


LOOKING AHEAD:

A ridge of high pressure builds back in this weekend into early next
week resulting in the return of unseasonably warm temperatures. The
return flow brings enough moisture to fuel afternoon showers in the
mountains on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Clouds will gradually overspread the region from northwest to
southeast today, with skies becoming broken to overcast by 00z.
Ceilings will gradually lower, but should remain above breakpoints
through 06z. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly today, with
widespread gusts of 25-35 knots this afternoon.

A cold front moves through tonight bring rain and snow showers, gusty
winds, and MVFR/IFR conditions as ceilings lower and visibility is
reduced. Winds shift to northwesterly behind the cold front.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002-007-
     008-011.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for
     COZ001-002-007-008.
     Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT
     Saturday for COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>023.
UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024-027.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for
     UTZ024.
     Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT
     Saturday for UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT