FXUS63 KGLD 152309 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 509 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watch issued for portions of the area where confidence is highest for multiple hours of critical conditions Thursday with warm temperatures, low humidity in the single digits to low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Those not in the watch is forecast to see one or two hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - Hard freeze likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night and Saturday morning for a hard freeze. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A low pressure system is departing the area leading wind gusts around 20-30 mph across the area but is forecast to wane west to east as the day goes on. High temperatures remain forecast in the 70s across the entire area. Winds this evening are forecast to shift to the southwest as a surface trough moves into the area as winds speeds remain around 10-15 mph under clear skies. With the surface trough drier air is forecast to move in as dew points fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. The shift to the southwest winds is forecast to keep temperatures from plummeting with the clear skies. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast around freezing across eastern Colorado to the low 40s across eastern portions of the area. The dry air is forecast to remain in place Thursday along with warming temperatures back into the 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures and the low dew points leads to high confidence in humidity in the low teens to upper single digits across the area. The surface trough is forecast to stall out across the area for most of the day leading to a very difficult fire weather forecast. Winds across the area are marginal when it comes to critical fire weather considerations for majority of the afternoon when humidity is forecast to be its lowest. While most of the area should see at least an hour of critical fire weather conditions confidence is around 50% for portions of the area to see 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions, this is where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for. The orientation of the trough across the area sets up an interesting hazard picture but shows the axis of the trough relatively well as it is draped from across northern Colorado down through portions of NW Kansas. In the axis of the trough winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Across SW Nebraska and far eastern portions of the CWA (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton and Graham) a tighter pressure gradient is forecast to be in place leading to wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting as early as the late afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions are around 60% at this time. For eastern Colorado (Kit Carson and Cheyenne), winds are forecast to be delayed until the middle afternoon until a low pressure system develops and increases the wind field. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast during this time and are forecast to continue through at least 02Z. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions across this area is around 50%. I heavily considered not issuing a watch as the trend with guidance lately has been favoring breezier winds but then lose the signal as the event gets nearer. But with 13Z NBM and 12Z HREF supporting the forecasted wind gusts with these synoptic features that was just enough to get my confidence high enough to issue the watch. Now if any of these features do shift any then the threat for multiple hours of critical fire weather would diminish. The focus then shifts to early Friday morning as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as winds shift to the north. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to accompany the front with guidance currently suggesting that wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as cold air advection increases. Light precipitation may also accompany the front as well as cross sections suggests -1 to -2 microbars of omega with the front. Omega actually increases through the day across northwest portions of the area which is increasing confidence in precipitation occurring even with increasing snow potential as well across eastern Colorado. With the warm ground temperatures accumulation will be hard to come by. Soundings support perhaps more of a drizzle initially with the front before the better forcing arrives later in the day Friday with dry air present between 700 and 600mb. Temperatures are forecast to fall through the day as well with afternoon highs currently forecast in the mid 40s across northwest portions of the area and to the mid 60s across the southeast. If the front were to move through quicker as fronts typically do then temperatures could fall a little more than currently forecast. As cold air advection continues the potential for a hard freeze for most if not all of the area does increase. There is some concern for this to be more of an impactful freeze than normal for a mid April cold snap due to the warmer than normal winter and spring that has occurred as some budding and blooming of trees, flowers and shrubs has begun. Along with the dry conditions residential and agriculture irrigation has been more frequent than normal which does bring the concern for freezing of outdoor irrigation systems. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%. Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 507 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCk through the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear. Surface winds will be light through tonight then increase from the south Thursday morning with gusts to 25 kts through Thursday afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ253-254. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080-081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...024