FXUS63 KGLD 150842 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 242 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy (~15-25 mph) S to SW winds and marginally critical fire weather possible over portions of the area on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 240 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Tonight: A few showers are possible in far northern portions of the area today as shortwave energy emerging from the Colorado Front Range early this morning progresses eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent (00-06Z) runs of the HRRR have, thus far (as of 08Z), verified well with radar and observational data/trends over and upstream of the Goodland CWA this morning. The HRRR suggests that showers assoc/w the upper wave traversing the region today will be (1) isolated to scattered in nature, (2) largely confined north of Hwy 36 and (3) largely occur prior to ~18Z. Expect relatively cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 70's and weakening WNW to W winds this afternoon, with overnight (Thu morning) lows in the mid 30's to lower 40's. A modest upper level ridge will build over the Central Plains late tonight and early Thu as shortwave energy exits the region / progresses east toward the MS River Valley. Thursday: With ridging aloft, expect a warming trend, and modest (~15-25 mph) S to SW winds on the eastern periphery of a broad lee trough over eastern CO and far western KS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow- moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 GLD: Aside from a potential for borderline MVFR ceilings (3,000-4,000 ft AGL) during the morning, mainly ~14-18Z, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Expect NW winds ~15-20 knots through late morning.. with winds backing to the WNW and decreasing to 10-15 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Winds will further back to the W or WSW and decrease to 5-10 knots around sunset. MCK: Aside from a potential for borderline MVFR ceilings (3,000-4,000 ft AGL) during the morning, mainly ~14-18Z, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. NNW to NW winds at 10-15 knots will back to the WNW or W and decrease to 5-10 knots during the around sunset. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Vincent