FXUS61 KGYX 151048 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 648 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some dense fog thru the morning hours, with gradual improvement in visibility expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Today will be another warm day with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. 2. Warm temperatures and chances for thunderstorms continue into Thursday. This looks like it could be another day where thunderstorms could be strong or even severe. 3. Wet weather continues off and on through the weekend, then colder and windy for Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains draped over the area today with waves of low pressure continuing to track along it. This should keep clouds pretty locked into the area during the day and therefore it won't get quite as warm as we saw on Tuesday, but it will be warm nonetheless with temperatures climbing into the 60s across much of the area and into the 70s in southern New Hampshire. Expecting a seabreeze to keep temperatures at the coast cooler, probably in the 50s. Due to increased cloud cover convective potential is going to be much less. Latest CAMs suggest maybe a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE are able to develop which is just enough for some run of the mill thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but not enough to see anything very strong or severe. Again this looks most likely in southern New Hampshire and maybe southwestern Maine. We will see a sharp temperature drop across much of the area Wednesday night as cooler marine air advects onshore. Temperatures in Maine and coastal New Hampshire drop into the 40s, and the remainder of New Hampshire stays in the 50s with the Connecticut River Valley holding onto the warmest temperatures. This is also likely going to bring some fog to the coastal plain and maybe just inland as well. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The pattern is rinse and repeat for Thursday as waves of low pressure continue to track along a quai-staionary boundary. There are a few differences though compared to Wednesday. The first being better forcing ahead of a sharp 500 mb trough is going to help remnant convection from the Great Lakes Region sustain into the Northeast, rolling over the ridge and ending up as widespread rain showers in our area (with one round possibly clipping southern New Hampshire in the early morning hours). The second difference is going to be that the ridging aloft may allow for enough clearing, mainly in southern New Hampshire, to once again develop some strong or even severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. We are at the tail end of the CAMs window here, but they are already suggesting a wide swath of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across southern New Hampshire with ample deep layer shear. Some things to consider will be be potentially lacking low and mid-level lapse rates and the possibility of abundant cloud debris keeping convection suppressed (something we saw occur more than once last year). KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Scattered to numerous showers with some rumbles of thunder should continue through Thursday night and into Friday as low pressure continues to form along boundary to our south. During this time cool temperatures are expected, with the warmest highs (relatively speaking) occur across southern NH. Onshore flow continues on Saturday but it should be drier as we'll have a break in forcing for ascent. However, clouds and some drizzle may occur. A strong cold front approaches early Sunday and crosses during the day. Thereafter, relatively cold and windy NW flow takes over for Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread LIFR CIGs with some dense fog this morning. Slow and steady improvement is anticipated thru mid morning, but whether we can break into VFR is low confidence. I suspect some areas will pop out, but some of western Maine may stay at MVFR most of the midday. Whether showers and storms over western NY can hold together is also quite low confidence, but some guidance suggests additional showers will develop in warm advection this afternoon and evening. Also onshore flow continues tonight and more widespread low stratus and LIFR CIGs is expected. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR in showers, with thunderstorms possible as well. Thursday night-Friday: MVFR due to showers. IFR possible as well, especially along the coast. Saturday: VFR expected although we will have to watch for coastal stratus. Sunday-Monday: MVFR due to showers and possible thunderstorms through Sunday night. VFR Monday with gusty NW SFC winds. && .MARINE... Mostly tranquil conditions are expected on the waters through the day Thursday. Winds will start today and Thursday light and variable with a sea breeze developing in the afternoon. Wave heights during this time period are expected to be 3ft of less. The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. SCA conditions will be likely Sunday afternoon through Monday with strong cold frontal passage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster AVIATION...Legro MARINE...