FXUS64 KHUN 151034 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 534 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly clear and mild early this morning, with 08z temperatures in the mid/upper 50s and only a few passing cirrus clouds overhead. The main concern today will the potential once again for elevated fire weather conditions again this afternoon. The combination of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s will create Min RH values between 25-35 percent. Although winds will be around 10 MPH or less from the southwest, some locally higher gusts up to 15-20 MPH may occur from the late morning through the afternoon hours. Given the very dry fuels, observations will need to be monitored closely and caution continues to be urged. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging begins to push eastward later on Wednesday as a shortwave approaches the Midwest. This feature will traverse the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, with another shortwave forming and moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. This second shortwave will eventually progress over the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging will then develop over the Southeast quickly in the wake of these shortwaves on Friday. Ultimately, what this means for sensible weather for our local area is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances over NW AL. However, as we've been alluding to over the past couple of days, not much rainfall is expected (less than a quarter of an inch). Additionally, while there will be the presence of a 80-90 knot upper jet aloft Thursday afternoon and evening as well as ample bulk shear and some instability, there appears to be a decent cap (CIN) over our area. Therefore, anticipating any storms that develop to be sub-severe. Dry weather (no rain) will then return for Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the increasing temperatures that are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Friday. These forecast highs will flirt with record highs for April 17th (90 degrees for Huntsville, 92 degrees for Muscle Shoals; both in 2006). It'll also be warm at night, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. Even though it's not summertime yet, it's still important to remember heat safety as these temperatures are well above the seasonal norm for this time of year. If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 15-20 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24