FXUS64 KHUN 150527 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Persistent upper level ridging over the Southeast and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain a tranquil forecast with no rain through Wednesday afternoon. Some upper level clouds will continue to stream overhead tonight, but it will still be a bit too dry for much fog to form. It'll also be fairly warm thanks to the aforementioned pattern, as lows only drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s later tonight. Another day of dry weather and breezy conditions is then on tap for Wednesday. Hi-Res guidance indicates that dew points should dip into the 40s/50s (lowest over NE AL) by the afternoon, resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Expect sustained south/southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to around 20 mph through the day as well. Although not quite meeting Red Flag criteria, elevated fire weather will continue to be a concern. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected! In addition, it will be fairly warm as forecast highs top out in the mid 80s for most locations. For context, the record highs for April 15th are 88 degrees in Huntsville and 89 degrees in Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Furthermore, our forecast highs are at least ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Therefore, although it's not "summertime heat", it will be warm for this time of year. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade if you are outside for long periods of time! && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Upper level ridging begins to push eastward later on Wednesday as a shortwave approaches the Midwest. This feature will traverse the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, with another shortwave forming and moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. This second shortwave will eventually progress over the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging will then develop over the Southeast quickly in the wake of these shortwaves on Friday. Ultimately, what this means for sensible weather for our local area is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances over NW AL. However, as we've been alluding to over the past couple of days, not much rainfall is expected (less than a quarter of an inch). Additionally, while there will be the presence of a 80-90 knot upper jet aloft Thursday afternoon and evening as well as ample bulk shear and some instability, there appears to be a decent cap (CIN) over our area. Therefore, anticipating any storms that develop to be sub-severe. Dry weather (no rain) will then return for Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the increasing temperatures that are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Friday. These forecast highs will flirt with record highs for April 17th (90 degrees for Huntsville, 92 degrees for Muscle Shoals; both in 2006). It'll also be warm at night, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. Even though it's not summertime yet, it's still important to remember heat safety as these temperatures are well above the seasonal norm for this time of year. If you have outdoor activities or work outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 15-20 kts, before weakening after sunset. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...AMP.24