FXUS64 KHUN 141707 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday. - There are medium chances (30-40%) of showers and storms on Thursday. - Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The upper level pattern remains unchanged with ridging east and troughing west. Current satellite imagery shows high level cirrus moving from west to east across the area, but otherwise mostly sunny skies are forecast today. High pressure centered near the GA/FL state line will reinforce the dry and warm airmass with southerly flow throughout the day. As a result, dewpoints are expected to mix out this afternoon from the upper 50s down into the upper 40s to lower 50s with the lowest values in NE AL. With afternoon highs forecast to rise into the mid 80s, this would drop RH values into the 25-35 percent range. The good news is that winds will remain below red flag criteria with gusts this afternoon around 15 mph. Given the very dry fuels, this may result in localized elevated fire weather conditions and caution continues to be urged. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with overnight lows dropping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Near record warmth is forecast through the short term period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. These temperatures are around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year. Locally, not much change is in store as high pressure along the Southeast coast continues to be the main factor in our local weather pattern. One thing to watch is on Thursday as a shortwave riding along the trough to our west will push eastward towards the Tennessee River Valley. This will bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Unfortunately, overall rain amounts will remain quite low and will not put much of a dent into our deficit this Spring. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon. As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KHSV and KMSL. Southwesterly gusts will slack shortly after sunset but they will pick back up to 15kts after sunrise tomorrow. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...JMS