FXUS63 KICT 141739
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are possible this
  afternoon and tonight and again late Wednesday and Friday.

- Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 this afternoon and
  early evening.

- A cool-down is expected for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A mid/upper trough over the Southwest is progged to move ENE into
the Central Rockies late today before emerging over the Central High
Plains late tonight into early Wednesday. Strong southwest winds
through the column are progged to develop downstream over the
Central Plains. Much like yesterday, the dryline will be on the move
and is expected to mix eastward as we move through the day with deep
layer unidirectional flow anticipated in a deeply mixed pbl.
However, low level winds are progged to back late in the day as the
sfc low moves into Central Kansas. This will allow the low level
moisture to return across south central and parts of central KS late
in the afternoon or early in the evening which makes for a
complicated forecast. The better height falls and large-scale
forcing for ascent are expected to arrive this evening and tonight
when storm coverage may increase as the LLJ ramps up across south
central Kansas. The warm/moist sector is progged to have mid 60
dewpoints resulting in 2500+ J/KG of MLCAPE with steep mid-level
lapse rates and deep layer shear of 50+ knots which should support
some supercell storms in the warm sector. A tornado threat is
expected to increase, especially in the early evening as the LLJ
ramps up. The threat for severe storms may linger beyond midnight
into the early morning hours.

Another round of severe storms will be possible on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There is a possibility that we have morning
showers and storms which could impact what unfolds during the
afternoon hours. But given quality moisture in the warm sector and
what appears to be rather weak inhibition, we may not need much of a
break before storms redevelop.

As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we
will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday
resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to
climb into the 80s areawide.

Another mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern
Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on
Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to
nose into south central KS early on Friday where we could see a
rogue storm or two during the predawn hours. However, better
chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive late in
the day and into the evening hours. We continue to see some
differences in how this feature will emerge from the Rockies
late on Friday which will impact the magnitude and coverage of
severe storms with low confidence in the details at this time.

Sat-Mon...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the
area on Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs
are only expected to climb into the lower 60s for most areas. As
high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we
could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into
the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the
central CONUS Sun-Mon with rising heights/increasing thickness
supporting rising temperatures across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail in central KS through the end
of the period, while sites in south central and southeast KS may see
MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday morning.

Gusty south/southwest winds will continue this afternoon into the
overnight period before weakening Wednesday morning and turning more
to the west, especially at central KS sites. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon will begin in south central KS with an
eastward progression through the evening and overnight. There
remains some uncertainty as to how far west storms develop; as
such, maintained the PROB30 groups for ICT and CNU with this cycle
with slight changes to expected window for impacts. Storms
may even develop as far west as HUT, though confidence is too low
for a mention there for the 18Z issuance.

Finally, low-level moisture flowing into southeast KS through the
overnight period is forecast to bring MVFR to near-IFR ceilings
to CNU early Wednesday morning. Short-term models give these
low chances (20%) for impacting ICT, so stay tuned to upcoming
forecast cycles as more information becomes available.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Extreme grassland fire danger is expected again today for areas west
of Interstate 135 with very dry air and strong southwest winds
developing this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
until 9 pm. Dry air will linger across central Kansas through
much of the week and with breezy southerly winds returning on
Thursday and Friday, a very high grassland fire danger will
return for parts of central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK