FXUS63 KIND 150550 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 150 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week. - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The severe weather threat has diminished across central Indiana as storms have shifted out of the region. Latest observations depict quiet weather over the forecast area with storms still ongoing further east in Ohio. Expect mostly quiet weather through the overnight period due to weak surface ridging building in and convective overturning from recent storms. POPs were lowered significantly in the latest update. Isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out late tonight, mainly across northern counties as a complex of storms may shift south. The storms will likely weaken as they progress southeastward though and may stay north of the area entirely so confidence is low. Trends will continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments, but dry conditions are likely through the overnight. Look for mild lows in the mid-upper 60s tonight thanks to breezy southwesterly flow. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An MCS over the upper Mississippi Valley decayed over central IL early this morning, but its outflow boundary continued to push through central Indiana, of which led to isolated thunderstorms and showers north and west of Indianapolis. This boundary is now stalling over central IL as it interacts with modest SW flow ahead of a developing low pressure system. Visible satellite imagery is starting to define this boundary, of which is currently along a line from Bloomington to Terre Haute; this is supported by the mass fields in the surface analysis. North/East of this boundary there is still signals of some mid-level stability both in the cloud features and from ACAR sounding analysis at KIND. However to its South/West, modest moisture advection is aiding in quick destabilization showcased by areas of "popcorn" cumulus. Convective initiation is expected to begin over the next few hours over this area, quickly pushing eastward, reaching central Indiana between 4 and 6PM. Cells initially could begin elevated, but should quickly erode the weak cap and become surface based with progression. Parameter spacing for severe weather is rather robust today with an expected 2-3 kJ/kg of CAPE and greater than 40kt of effective shear. This should allow for organized/strong updrafts to develop with a broad risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. While tornadoes are not the primary threat, there will be a chance of isolated tornadoes this evening. The primary concern will be with cells that become highly deviant along the aforementioned boundary and brief spin-ups within cell mergers. The severe threat should wane after 02Z as subsidence on the backside of the MCS increases convective inhibition. Focus will then turn to upstream convection over the western Great Lakes. The primary threat will likely stay well to the north overnight, but residual outflow boundaries tomorrow could focus initiation over northern portions of the area in the morning and early afternoon, with the thunderstorm threat continuing into the early evening. Confidence in specific locations for thunderstorms is low, and will greatly depend on the evolution and progression of upstream convection tonight. Instability will remain high tomorrow but shear will not be quite as organized leading to a lower overall severe threat, with a marginal threat of damaging winds and large hail for most of central Indiana. The active pattern will continue into the weekend with multiple waves bringing additional chances for storms then upper ridging expected to bring drier and cooler air for the start of the new week. Wednesday night will start off with an upper short wave tracking from the central plains to the Great Lakes with showers and storms along and ahead of the associated cold front. Main threats with this system will be lightning and stronger wind gusts mixing down within stronger storms. The persistent SW flow will prolong the above normal temperatures through Saturday as highs will range from the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Friday will see a break in rain chances then a deep trough will prompt another round storms for Saturday. Models show that the surface low with this system will be unaligned and tracking ahead of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday's system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are still some differences on when the associated cold front would exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours, behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as well. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly SSW winds through the TAF period, gusting to 17-25KT - Non-zero chances of additional convection this evening - Multiple rounds of convection 17z Wed - 12z Thu Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across central Indiana this evening as satellite imagery shows most of the convective activity in the region well to the west or north. The region remains well within the warm sector of an area of low pressure to the northwest. Waves of energy within the SW flow aloft interacting with leftover boundaries will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into tonight. Mainly VFR cigs and vis outside of storms for the majority of the period. After 17z, widely scatter storms should begin forming along leftover boundaries. Low confidence in exactly where these boundaries set up, however thinking the set up and evolution will be very similar to Tuesday where the greatest threat is along and north of I-70. Kept Prob30 groups for TSRA after 17z at KLAF, KIND, and KHUF where the greatest threat is. Will be able to fine tune exact timing in later forecast issuances once boundaries set up. Brief periods of MVFR or worse conditions with erratic wind speeds and directions under any storm. With numerous waves of showers and storms expected to move through the area, keeping the threat for storms through the end of the TAF period. Outside of storms, breezy, south-southwest flow to prevail through the period, with slight changes in direction possible, especially near any showers. Took out any mention of LLWS overnight through the early morning hours as the boundary layer is remaining well mixed according to obs and local ACARS soundings. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts should prevail through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...KF/Updike