FXUS63 KJKL 150848 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 448 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Shortwave ridging this morning will give way to increasing southwest flow ahead of a mid-level disturbance that will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night, bringing with it increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and more importantly, badly needed rainfall. Increased fire danger is expected today, especially across southeastern Kentucky, from a combination of unseasonably warm (to hot) conditions, low humidity (generally in the 20 to 30 percent range), southwest breezes (gusts 15 to 20 mph), and dry fuels from the ongoing lack of sufficient wetting rains. Dry conditions continue into tonight, at least on ridgetops and upper slopes, but fortunately moderating conditions are expected to arrive from the west Thursday as a pair of passing disturbances brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first disturbance is a northern stream disturbance moving from the Central Plains through the northern Ohio River Valley and will be responsible for rain chances during the late morning through afternoon period, with a southern stream disturbance moving from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic providing a second round of showers and storms for the late afternoon through overnight period. At this time, it appears the better moisture and instability will accompany the second wave in the afternoon, with a marginal severe threat conditional on sufficient destabilization after the passage of the first disturbance and associated shower and cloud activity. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area Friday ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere, which may lead to patchy frost in the coldest locations. Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Monday night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance and should hold through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic, and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. In between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds will average between 5 and 10 kts in more exposed locations with occasional higher gusts, with light and variable or southwest winds 5 kts of less at more sheltered TAF sites. Marginal LLWS has likely peaked between 03z and 06z and will diminish in intensity and move off to the north through the remainder of tonight. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12 kts range from around 14Z - once the nocturnal inversion mixes out - until around sunset this evening. Occasional gusts to around 20 kts are also expected . && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC AVIATION...CMC