FXUS63 KJKL 142015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - A passing disturbance could result in isolated showers or a stray storm through early this evening across northern and eastern portions of the area. - Additional showers/storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf and extended into the Southeast as well as into portions of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest to west southwest flow aloft was in place across the OH Valley with a couple of disturbances passing within this flow. This southwest to west southwest flow was occurring between the ridging to the east and southeast of the Commonwealth and an upper trough entering portions of the Northern Plains to Central Rockies to Four Corners regions. At the surface, a frontal zone extends from New England to the Great Lakes to the Central Plains to CO. Meanwhile a sfc ridge of high pressure was centered in the Atlantic into the Southeast and north into the Southern Appalachians. A few showers were exiting Pike County and into WV and VA at this time associated with a disturbance in southwest flow. Some convective allowing models have had some redevelopment through early this evening in the north and east, though recent HRRR runs have backed off on that idea. At this point, opted to maintain slight chance pops roughly east of an Irvine to Hazard to Whitesburg line for the next few hours. Chances for any convection wane with the loss of daytime heating as mid level heights rise for late evening into a part of the overnight with neutral height tendencies to end the night. The sfc high will also remain in place tonight. As the night progresses and into the day on Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain from the Gulf into the Southeast to the coast of the Carolinas and VA while the mid and upper trough progresses into the Plains and Central Conus. This will leave eastern KY in the warm sector south of the frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes into the Central Conus with multiple waves moving along it. This mid and upper trough will continue to approach the region on Wednesday night as the axis of the mid and upper ridge shifts east. At the same time, sfc high pressure also remains in place into the Southeast and the Southern Appalachians. Clearing skies should occur during the evening into tonight, especially in regard to low and mid level clouds. This is favored by the pattern and 12Z HREF ensemble means. This should set the stage for a moderate ridge/valley split as sfc and upper ridging dominates. With afternoon dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 50s, fog development appears more probable in the valleys than recent nights, especially if the forecast low to mid 50s low temperatures materialize. Any fog should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise on Wednesday and give way to a milder day compared to today. The airmass should also be drier overall and min rh should trend down. Currently, forecast max temperatures of 86 at JKL and 85 at LOZ would tie records for the date. Another moderate magnitude ridge/valley temperature split follows for Wednesday night with sfc high pressure centered in the Atlantic, but extending into the Southeast and Southern Appalachians dominating. Low should again be in the low to mid 50s for valleys and low to mid mid 60s for ridges. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and should prevail through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging should remain from the eastern Gulf into the southeast and parts of the Atlantic while the axis of an upper trough moves into the Central Conus. A passing disturbance could bring a shower or stray storm with brief sub VFR conditions during the first few hours of the period to KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, and KSJS. Otherwise, in between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds should average between 5 and 15KT with some gusts to around 20KT for the first few hours of the period. Low and mid level clouds are expected to decrease this evening while winds should also diminish around 00Z with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12KT range from around 14Z to the end of the period as the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20KT are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP