FXUS63 KJKL 150534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
134 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal
  through the end of the week. Record or near record high
  temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday.

- Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a
  passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this
  weekend with a cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky, though low pressure is near to the
northwest. The pressure gradient is keeping the winds breezy for
the northwest portion of the area but settling elsewhere. Skies
are mostly clear with the storm chances staying well north of the
Ohio River. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to
upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and
higher gusts northwest, dewpoints are generally in the mid to
upper 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to tamp down the
PoPs through the night per the latest CAMs guidance. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the
eastern Gulf and extended into the Southeast as well as into
portions of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest to west southwest
flow aloft was in place across the OH Valley with a couple of
disturbances passing within this flow. This southwest to west
southwest flow was occurring between the ridging to the east and
southeast of the Commonwealth and an upper trough entering portions
of the Northern Plains to Central Rockies to Four Corners
regions. At the surface, a frontal zone extends from New England
to the Great Lakes to the Central Plains to CO. Meanwhile a sfc
ridge of high pressure was centered in the Atlantic into the
Southeast and north into the Southern Appalachians. A few showers
were exiting Pike County and into WV and VA at this time
associated with a disturbance in southwest flow.

Some convective allowing models have had some redevelopment
through early this evening in the north and east, though recent
HRRR runs have backed off on that idea. At this point, opted to
maintain slight chance pops roughly east of an Irvine to Hazard to
Whitesburg line for the next few hours. Chances for any convection
wane with the loss of daytime heating as mid level heights rise
for late evening into a part of the overnight with neutral height
tendencies to end the night. The sfc high will also remain in
place tonight. As the night progresses and into the day on
Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain from the Gulf into the
Southeast to the coast of the Carolinas and VA while the mid and
upper trough progresses into the Plains and Central Conus. This
will leave eastern KY in the warm sector south of the frontal
zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes into the Central Conus
with multiple waves moving along it. This mid and upper trough
will continue to approach the region on Wednesday night as the
axis of the mid and upper ridge shifts east. At the same time, sfc
high pressure also remains in place into the Southeast and the
Southern Appalachians.

Clearing skies should occur during the evening into tonight,
especially in regard to low and mid level clouds. This is favored
by the pattern and 12Z HREF ensemble means. This should set the
stage for a moderate ridge/valley split as sfc and upper ridging
dominates. With afternoon dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper
50s, fog development appears more probable in the valleys than
recent nights, especially if the forecast low to mid 50s low
temperatures materialize. Any fog should lift and dissipate within
a couple of hours after sunrise on Wednesday and give way to a
milder day compared to today. The airmass should also be drier
overall and min rh should trend down. Currently, forecast max
temperatures of 86 at JKL and 85 at LOZ would tie records for the
date. Another moderate magnitude ridge/valley temperature split
follows for Wednesday night with sfc high pressure centered in the
Atlantic, but extending into the Southeast and Southern
Appalachians dominating. Low should again be in the low to mid 50s
for valleys and low to mid mid 60s for ridges.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts
northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances
increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening.
Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to
warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above
normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning,
temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s
along ridge tops.

A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a
deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively
quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and
temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching
system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday.
Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s.
Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes,
with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid-
Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper
MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will
increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through
the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and
storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast
through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will
warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds.  At
night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting
in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to
upper 40s.

Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled
southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the
area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid
60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough
begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on
the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air
still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing
skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s
in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere.

High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and
highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under
northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s
to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper
Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area.
conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly
winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance and should hold
through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector
between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast
to the western Atlantic, and a frontal zone from New England
across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. In between the sfc
systems, south to southwest winds will average between 5 and 10
kts in more exposed locations with occasional higher gusts, with
light and variable or southwest winds 5 kts of less at more
sheltered TAF sites. Marginal LLWS has likely peaked between 03z
and 06z and will diminish in intensity and move off to the north
through the remainder of tonight.

South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12 kts
range from around 14Z - once the nocturnal inversion mixes out -
until around sunset this evening. Occasional gusts to around 20
kts are also expected .

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC