FXUS63 KJKL 141812 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 212 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - A passing disturbance could result in isolated showers or a stray storm through early this evening across northern and eastern portions of the area. - Additional showers/storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Hourly grids, mainly temperatures, dewpoints, and winds, were freshened up based on recent observations and trends. A few showers were moving across the southeastern portions of the area at this time. Some of the convective allowing models have redevelopment of showers with perhaps a storm for northeastern and eastern sections of the area during the afternoon to early evening. The previous pops had this scenario covered so no changes to pops were made at this time. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Minor updates were made to Sky grids and hourly temperatures in the very near term. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An active jet stream and storm track resides from northwestern Mexico northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region through the period, with strong ridging through all layers of the atmosphere centered over the far southeastern CONUS and adjacent western Atlantic waters. Models depict an increase in moisture and instability impinging on northern and western counties early this morning and lasting into afternoon. This appears to be due to a passing disturbance crossing the southern Great Lakes region increasing the low-level jet across central and northeastern Kentucky, but the GFS does indicate a theta- e gradient extending from the Lower Tennessee Valley northeast into southwestern and central Ohio through 12z-15z this morning. While the vast majority of models keep eastern Kentucky dry, the GFS in particular does indicate a bit of isentropic lift along this boundary this morning which could result in shower activity forming upstream as early as this morning and then moving into the area later this morning into early afternoon. Will thus carry low PoPs across primarily western and northern areas through the afternoon today. It does bear mentioning that as of 07z this morning cloud tops are currently cooling where the GFS progs the weak isentropic lift to be currently. Models depict another theta-e gradient moving from central Tennessee north into central Kentucky this evening into the overnight. This will be the leading edge of a drier low-level air mass, and models suggest isentropic descent along this boundary, at least for the evening period, indicating subsidence. Will thus expect increased ridge-valley splits and clearer skies compared to this morning. For Wednesday, a passing disturbance well north and west of eastern Kentucky will push increasing warm advection and southwesterly flow across the area, with weak isentropic upglide again likely serving as a trigger for any showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these appear to stay northwest of our area, so will keep the forecast dry but with highest PoPs north of Interstate 64. Will thus expect another very warm day in the 80s across the forecast area, with a few 90-degree readings possible in the Big Sandy Basin where a southerly component to the low-level flow will promote some increased downslope warming. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week. Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve. A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and should prevail through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging should remain from the eastern Gulf into the southeast and parts of the Atlantic while the axis of an upper trough moves into the Central Conus. A passing disturbance could bring a shower or stray storm with brief sub VFR conditions during the first few hours of the period to KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, and KSJS. Otherwise, in between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds should average between 5 and 15KT with some gusts to around 20KT for the first few hours of the period. Low and mid level clouds are expected to decrease this evening while winds should also diminish around 00Z with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12KT range from around 14Z to the end of the period as the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20KT are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...JP