FXUS63 KJKL 141849 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 249 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures should average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. - A passing disturbance could result in isolated showers or a stray storm through early this evening across northern and eastern portions of the area. - Additional showers/storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Hourly grids, mainly temperatures, dewpoints, and winds, were freshened up based on recent observations and trends. A few showers were moving across the southeastern portions of the area at this time. Some of the convective allowing models have redevelopment of showers with perhaps a storm for northeastern and eastern sections of the area during the afternoon to early evening. The previous pops had this scenario covered so no changes to pops were made at this time. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 Minor updates were made to Sky grids and hourly temperatures in the very near term. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 An active jet stream and storm track resides from northwestern Mexico northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region through the period, with strong ridging through all layers of the atmosphere centered over the far southeastern CONUS and adjacent western Atlantic waters. Models depict an increase in moisture and instability impinging on northern and western counties early this morning and lasting into afternoon. This appears to be due to a passing disturbance crossing the southern Great Lakes region increasing the low-level jet across central and northeastern Kentucky, but the GFS does indicate a theta- e gradient extending from the Lower Tennessee Valley northeast into southwestern and central Ohio through 12z-15z this morning. While the vast majority of models keep eastern Kentucky dry, the GFS in particular does indicate a bit of isentropic lift along this boundary this morning which could result in shower activity forming upstream as early as this morning and then moving into the area later this morning into early afternoon. Will thus carry low PoPs across primarily western and northern areas through the afternoon today. It does bear mentioning that as of 07z this morning cloud tops are currently cooling where the GFS progs the weak isentropic lift to be currently. Models depict another theta-e gradient moving from central Tennessee north into central Kentucky this evening into the overnight. This will be the leading edge of a drier low-level air mass, and models suggest isentropic descent along this boundary, at least for the evening period, indicating subsidence. Will thus expect increased ridge-valley splits and clearer skies compared to this morning. For Wednesday, a passing disturbance well north and west of eastern Kentucky will push increasing warm advection and southwesterly flow across the area, with weak isentropic upglide again likely serving as a trigger for any showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these appear to stay northwest of our area, so will keep the forecast dry but with highest PoPs north of Interstate 64. Will thus expect another very warm day in the 80s across the forecast area, with a few 90-degree readings possible in the Big Sandy Basin where a southerly component to the low-level flow will promote some increased downslope warming. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 The long term period opens Thursday with a shortwave over the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. As this system lifts northeast throughout Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Southwesterly winds and warm air advection allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s through the afternoon, some 10-15 degrees above normal. As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and should prevail through the period. The region will remain in the warm sector between a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Southeast to the western Atlantic and a frontal zone from New England across the Great Lakes and into the Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging should remain from the eastern Gulf into the southeast and parts of the Atlantic while the axis of an upper trough moves into the Central Conus. A passing disturbance could bring a shower or stray storm with brief sub VFR conditions during the first few hours of the period to KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, and KSJS. Otherwise, in between the sfc systems, south to southwest winds should average between 5 and 15KT with some gusts to around 20KT for the first few hours of the period. Low and mid level clouds are expected to decrease this evening while winds should also diminish around 00Z with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds should pick up again into the 5 to 12KT range from around 14Z to the end of the period as the nocturnal inversion mixes out. A few gusts to around 20KT are also possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP