FXUS62 KKEY 150813
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the
  late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening
  and overnight.

- Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate
  drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with
  highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A broad high pressure remains centered over by Bermuda and
stretches back to the west-southwest across the Florida Peninsula
and Gulf waters. This had been maintaining moderate to
occasionally fresh easterly breezes across the Florida Keys these
past few days. Meanwhile, stacked overhead in the mid and upper
levels is a ridge that has been suppressing any upward vertical
movement. This on top of the very limited moisture that has been
rounding the ridge has equated to very low if not near nil rain
chances.

Today we will see much of the same in terms of sensible weather.
Deep layer subsidence on top of already limited moisture will
result in little more than sprinkles at best through the day.
Overnight we may get enough nocturnal instability to produce very
shallow and isolated showers, but even these will do little to
accumulate. Meanwhile, the surface high across the Atlantic and
Gulf will be at times bifurcated by a thermal trough across the
Peninsula due to daytime heating. This will lead to winds lulling
through the morning and afternoon, then peaking in the late
evening and overnight hours.

Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, a broad and weak
easterly wave will approach and stall in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. Though this feature will not reach the Keys proper, some
moisture from this wave will leach and slide westward at times.
This may allow for some showers to pass through at times Friday
through Sunday. On top of this, the low level steering flow will
remain north to northeast and any showers or thunderstorms that
develop across the mainland during the afternoons could also slide
across the Upper Keys at times.

Early next week a backdoor front looks to slide through the
Florida Keys with a slight uptick in rain chances but also a
period of freshening breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A broad high pressure sitting across the western North Atlantic
and into the Gulf Basin will maintain easterly winds this week and
into the weekend. Breezes will tend to lull during the morning and
afternoon, then peak in the late evening and overnight. This will
result in mainly gentle to moderate breezes with some periods of
moderate to occasionally fresh across the Straits of Florida. High
pressure will slide further east towards the weekend, allowing for
breezes to slacken. This is expected to be brief as the next high
quickly builds in from the Southern Plains on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will
remain generally from the ENE at near 10 knots with occasional
gusts to near 20 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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