FXUS62 KKEY 150201 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Breezy conditions will persist through at least early Wednesday morning. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the area again this evening. At the surface, the center of the ridge is centered across the central North Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward into Florida and the Gulf. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Florida Keys are recording northeast to east breezes near 20 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 0.65 to 0.80 inches throughout the Florida Keys. This places the PWAT values below the 10th percentile for the date. KBYX radar has been void of any activity as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows stratocumulus dotting the sky across the Keys with these moving in a northeast to southwest direction. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very dry atmospheric profile throughout the entire column with a stout inversion just above 850 mb. The sounding also shows general unidirectional wind flow with height. The sounding measured a PWAT value of 0.73 inches which is below the 10th percentile for the date. This is indicative of a very dry atmosphere. The only catalyst for a shower would speed convergence overnight due to the increased wind flow. The best chance for seeing a shower would be across the Straits of Florida where the slightly deeper moisture is present. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes (except fresh to strong Florida Straits) overnight through Wednesday night. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mainly easterly between 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts to near 20 knots, especially during the daylight hours Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 80 72 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest