FXUS63 KLBF 151114 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 614 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across portions of southwest Nebraska through early Wednesday afternoon. Accumulations of 0.25-0.50" are locally possible. - Dry weather returns for Thursday, with a combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions expected. Critical fire weather concerns are possible, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. - Threat for light precipitation Friday/Friday night-mainly over western areas. - Additional fire weather concerns Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across portions of western and central Nebraska. This is within a zone of strong FGEN aloft, with a weak H85 low centered over south central Nebraska. As this low slowly pushes east through late this morning, scattered shower development is expected to persist across portions of southwest and central Nebraska. The threat for a few thunderstorms also looks to persist, as steep lapse rates aloft will support at least meager instability. This should support at least locally heavier rainfall rates, though as a whole any accumulations remain to 0.10-0.25" for areas generally south of HWY 2. Where thunderstorms do occur, as much as 0.25-0.50" would be possible locally. No severe weather is expected with this activity, as the meager instability looks to overlap weak deep layer shear. As the low slowly begins to push off to the east by this afternoon, a surface trough will quickly move from west to east across the area. This will quickly usher in much drier air, as the surface trough reaches to near the HWY 83 corridor by late afternoon. Any lingering precipitation should quickly end from west to east by mid- afternoon, and dry conditions are then expected to continue into tomorrow. The much drier airmass will lead to elevated to near- critical fire concerns this afternoon, though winds look to be the main limiting factor at this time. Still, highs today reach into the lower 70s again, and push relative humidity into the teens for areas west of HWY 83 this afternoon. Lows tonight fall into the lower 30s, as the warm advection regime persists overnight. A much more concerning day is then on tap for tomorrow, as temperatures warm even further into the lower 80s across the entire area. This is as warm advection aloft pushes H85 temperatures towards the 90th percentile climo, or to ~21-23C. Unfortunately, these warm highs will combine with the very dry airmass in place, and push relative humidity values to as low as 10 to 15 percent for all of western and north central Nebraska. As deep diurnal mixing is achieved, southerly gusts of 30 to 35 miles per hour can be expected as well. The combination of the warm, very dry, and gusty conditions look to lead to critical fire weather concerns, and see no reason to make any changes to the inherited Fire Weather Watch. By early Friday morning, a cold front will begin to push into northern Nebraska, and should largely clear the area by sunrise. This will lead to a sharp wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold advection will also lead to ample mechanical mixing, and a period of 40 to 45 mile per hour northerly wind gusts can be expected with frontal passage as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A strong cold front is expected to clear the forecast area by 12z Friday. Much colder air will push in behind the front Friday with highs struggling to reach the mid 50s in far southeastern portions of the forecast area. Across the northeastern Panhandle, highs will be around 40 degrees. For most of the day Friday, dry and cool conditions are expected. For locations further west including the eastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills, weak mid level warm air advection will lead to an increased threat for light precipitation in these areas. During the day, thermal profiles in the west and northwest, will support snow, especially Friday morning and Friday evening into Friday night. Ground temps do remain warm in these areas, especially after the 80+ degree readings expected Thursday. With the warm ground temps, little to no snow accumulations are expected with this activity. Additionally, QPF's will be light with this system. The NBM precipitation ensembles only indicate a 10 to 20% chance of QPF exceeding 0.10" Friday/Friday night. Even if ground temps were much colder, snow accums would generally be an inch or less across northwestern portions of the of the forecast area. Forcing for precipitation will weaken Saturday morning as the upper level trough crosses central into eastern Nebraska. However steep lapse rates are indicated in the latest GFS soln Saturday afternoon over the western half of the forecast area. Add in some surface heating, and wouldn't be surprised if we saw some isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon. The NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon, and this seems reasonable and will be retained with this forecast package. Cold high pressure will settle into the Dakotas and Nebraska Saturday night. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will allow lows to reach into the middle 20s by Sunday morning which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east of the forecast area Sunday morning shifting winds to the south Sunday afternoon. Ridging aloft will build into the Intermountain west and warmer boundary layer air will push into the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday will reach into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Afternoon RH will reach 10 to 20 percent along with southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 MPH, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Even warmer temperatures will build into the area Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching into the 80s. ATTM these forecast high temps are at the 25th%ile of the NBM and may end up going even higher with subsequent forecasts. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions appear likely Monday and Tuesday with min RH of 10 to 20 percent Monday and 15 to 25 percent Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the KLBF terminal: There will be a threat for light rain showers INVOF the terminal through 16z this morning. The greatest threat will be from 12z to 15z and will handle the mention with a tempo group. Ceilings this morning will range from 6000 to 9000 FT AGL. By late morning, ceilings will lift to around 20000 FT AGL before scattering out early this afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL through late morning with mostly clear skies developing by early afternoon. Cloud coverage this afternoon will be a few clouds ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL. Skies will then clear this evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler