FXUS64 KLUB 150335
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1035 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 - Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of this week
   and into the upcoming weekend.

 - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each
   afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock.

 - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A positively tilted upper level trough axis just east of the Four
Corners as of late Tuesday evening will continue to shift eastward
over the next 24 hours, with flow aloft over West TX consequently
weakening and becoming more zonal. At the surface, a dryline will
reside near the edge of the Caprock through Wednesday morning, with
lingering isolated shower and thunderstorm activity set to end
before midday. The dryline will quickly exit to our east by early
Wednesday afternoon as deep downslope westerly low level flow
establishes across the region in response to expansive surface
troughing developing over the TX Panhandle. Storm chances
Wednesday afternoon and evening are therefore expected to remain
to our east, with a warm and dry day expected Wednesday across the
forecast area. RH values will fall to or below 10 percent, which
combined with west winds around 15 to 20 mph will result in
elevated fire danger across much of the region. Quiet and
seasonably cool conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows
mainly in the 40s to low 50s by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Flow aloft will back to a more southwesterly direction Thursday into
Friday as deep mid/upper level troughing advances over the
intermountain west. However, surface moisture will be slow to return
to our area with dry downslope winds set to continue through the day
on Thursday, leading to another afternoon of warm temperatures and
increased fire weather concerns. Low level moisture will finally
increase Thursday night into early Friday, but is expected to be
rather shallow. A subset of guidance hints at some light
precipitation on Thursday night, but a general lack of deeper
moisture and forcing for ascent casts doubt on the potential for
anything more than a deck of low clouds and some light rain showers
or weak storms heading into Friday morning. This moisture will be
quick to exit by later in the day Friday, with dry west winds
strengthening and bringing another period of increased fire danger
to most of the area on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a strong cold
front is still on track to pass through the region early Saturday
which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The
weekend also looks to remain dry across our area, but low chances
for showers and storms will return by early next week as moist low
level return flow reestablishes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

LBB could see visbys briefly reach MVFR in the next 1-2 hours from
BLDU and stronger gusts near 35 knots. LLN recently fell to
4SM. Otherwise, TS are expected to remain well outside all
terminals with only some -SHRA overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

West winds will gradually increase after sunrise Wednesday, with 20
foot wind speeds expected to peak around 15 mph on Wednesday
afternoon. A much drier airmass is also expected Wednesday, which
combined with warm temperatures will result in RH values in the
single digits. RFTI values up to 4 will be almost entirely RH-driven
given the relatively light 20 foot wind speeds, so this should keep
fire danger capped at elevated. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect
for most of the Caprock and southern TX Panhandle from 12 PM to 8 PM
Wednesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93