FXUS64 KLZK 150500 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 -Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas -First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning -Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region -Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s. By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time. Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details. Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The northern sites of KHRO and KBPK can expect VCTS over the first few hours of the forecast period from TSRA moving out of Oklahoma into northern Arkansas. CIGS will lower to MVFR flight category at all terminals for a few hours before lifting back to VFR flight category on Wednesday morning. Surface wind gusts will be present at all terminals in excess of 20 to 25 knots later Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening when surface winds will lose their gusting condition. VCTS will return to the sites of KHRO and KBPK late in the forecast period from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 65 83 65 / 20 80 70 10 Camden AR 84 64 85 64 / 0 40 40 10 Harrison AR 78 61 81 64 / 70 90 60 0 Hot Springs AR 81 63 83 63 / 20 70 40 0 Little Rock AR 83 65 83 65 / 10 70 60 0 Monticello AR 85 67 86 66 / 0 20 40 0 Mount Ida AR 80 62 81 63 / 30 80 40 10 Mountain Home AR 79 61 82 62 / 60 80 60 0 Newport AR 85 66 83 65 / 10 70 80 0 Pine Bluff AR 85 65 85 65 / 0 50 50 10 Russellville AR 81 64 83 63 / 40 80 60 0 Searcy AR 83 63 83 62 / 10 70 70 0 Stuttgart AR 85 67 83 66 / 0 50 70 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74