FXUS62 KMHX 150611 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 211 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday 3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal to near record temperatures continue to be favored into this weekend thanks to a warm southwesterly low- level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temperatures each day may be moderated some by convective debris clouds, but the only real impact here is that it may lower the risk of records being tied or broken at any one location. For perspective, normal highs for mid-April are in the low to mid 70s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. We won't be anywhere near those normal values as this stretch of anomalous warmth continues to drag on. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10- 50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in almost 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.20" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 30-40kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer. Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Primarily a persistence forecast for aviation interests this morning as pattern remains static from yesterday. High pressure offshore anchored offshore will continue to encourage southwesterly winds during the overnight hours, which will discourage any widespread fog formation. Like the past few evenings, localized areas of decoupling could see some shallow and brief visibility restrictions most likely between 10-12z. Winds will primarily be out of the SW with gusts around 15-20 kt beginning mid to late morning as deeper mixing ensues. An active sea breeze bringing a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland through the afternoon and early evening hours, with a brief window of enhanced gusts near 20 kt immediately behind the boundary. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... The southwesterly flow regime of late is expected to continue for several more days across all ENC waters. Within this regime, wind gusts will occasionally bump up against 25kt (as was observed at several marine observation sites yesterday afternoon and evening). The thermal gradient looks to be a bit stronger today and Thursday, with a bit more frequency to the occurrence of 25kt gusts. This may necessitate a short-fused Small Craft Advisory for a portion of our waters, especially on Thursday. For the coastal waters, seas of 3-5 ft will be common, especially within the persistent and slightly stronger southwest flow pattern. Outlook: South to southwest winds are expected to build over the weekend, especially on Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the west. A period of 25-30kt winds appears likely both ahead of, and behind, the cold front. There continues to be at least a modest signal for gale-force gusts with this front as well. Seas are forecast to peak in the 6-9 ft range with this front. Scattered thunderstorms may accompany the front as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...MS MARINE...RM