FXUS62 KMLB 141755 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 155 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today. - Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft remains extended across the area as surface ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic persists north of central FL. This will continue a warm and mostly dry pattern across the region today, with highs near to slightly above normal, ranging from near 80 degrees at the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior. Despite an overall dry airmass (PW values around 0.7-0.8"), there is enough moisture in the lower levels for the easterly flow to generate a few onshore moving sprinkles, mainly along the Treasure Coast through this morning and into the afternoon. Radar imagery has already shown some very light showers move onshore Martin County. However, not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall with this activity, so rain chances remain low (10% or less). Models show airmass drying out even further in tonight which should end any of these light showers and sprinkles. Easterly winds increase up to 10-15 mph today, with gusts to around 20 mph. Onshore winds then diminish into tonight with temps falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the interior, and in the low to mid 60s at the coast. HREF guidance shows a better potential for patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning across to northwest of the I-4 corridor. A High Risk for life-threatening rip currents persists at area beaches today due to a lingering swell. Entering the surf is not advised. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week into the weekend, which will weaken the onshore flow. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the area, continuing a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and then climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values, but greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still look to be at Leesburg Friday through Sunday. Monday-Tuesday...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend into early next week and also bring a return of rain chances. However, for now PoPs remain on the lower end (around 20- 30%), as there remains some differences in overall moisture return and shower coverage between the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS still slightly wetter than the ECMWF. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through midweek and then settles southward across central Florida late this week and into the weekend. E/SE winds will generally continue over the next several days in the prevailing flow as ridge axis remains to the north, and then into the afternoon/evening hours Friday through Sunday with the developing east coast sea breeze as ridge settles across the area. Wind speeds will range from 5-15 knots, with seas 3-5 feet today and Wednesday falling to 2-4 feet into late week, and then 2-3 feet into the weekend. A few light showers and sprinkles may develop from time to time in the onshore flow, but overall dry conditions are forecast for the next several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry conditions today, but an isolated sprinkle can not be ruled out. However, since confidence is so low (rain chances 10 percent or less), VCSH is not included in the TAF. ESE winds of 8-12 KT with gusts to 20 KT this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 KT after 00/01Z before becoming light later in the overnight hours. ESE winds will increase to 8-12 KT once again by mid morning Wednesday with occasional gusts to 20 KT in the afternoon, mainly along the coast from VRB southward, as winds become enhanced behind the east coast sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Prevailing onshore winds will generally continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each afternoon through midweek, with strongest winds generally at the coast. Gusts to around 20 mph will also be possible today. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend continuing over the next several days. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, across areas near to northwest of I-4, Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent are forecast this afternoon, with more critical values in the low to mid 30s across this far inland portion of east central Florida Wednesday and Thursday. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good both today and Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Record Highs for April 17-19: April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson