FXUS64 KMOB 150531 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper trof advances across the Plains and much of the eastern states through Thursday night before exiting off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An upper ridge spanning much of the Gulf and the extreme southeastern states becomes oriented over the eastern Gulf up to near the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday, then retreats to the Gulf on Thursday. The upper ridge builds back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western CONUS. This next upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, and an associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the passage of the front, a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast will promote a warm southerly surface flow over the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with upper ridge look to keep deep layer moisture sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Saturday. As the front moves through, have gone with slight chance to chance pops along and west of I-65 Saturday night with slight chance pops for Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Monday into Tuesday. There is the potential for dense fog development overnight which will be monitored. Fog development is also possible again Wednesday night and Thursday night. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, and in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and mostly in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s trend to the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday night and Friday night, then turn cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer through Tuesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will gradually give way to LIFR and VLIFR visbys and ceilings across most of the area excluding the immediate coastline. Conditions will quickly return to areawide VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain light out of the south becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Ongoing drought conditions pose the potential to exacerbate wildfire activity for the next 7 days. While afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels through Sunday, drier air flows into the area on Monday which looks to result in relative humidity values dropping to 20-25% mostly over interior areas. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 64 84 61 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 80 64 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 65 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 86 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$