FXUS63 KMPX 150846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry through early Friday. A few showers are possible
  today across southeastern MN. Temperatures warm into the 70s
  or lower 80s Thursday.

- A very strong cold front will push east through the area on
  Friday. Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop on the front
  late Friday afternoon east of I-35.

- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas of fog have formed across western MN last evening. It is
having a difficult time sustaining itself for long at any given
location and appears to be shallow ground fog. A thicker bank of
fog and stratus to the north is trying to work south into
central MN, but is also not making much progress. High clouds
from convection in Iowa are streaming northeast across eastern
MN and WI. This should keep fog from becoming too dense or
widespread there, although the stratus is making slightly
better progress building south in WI. Any fog will burn off
quickly after sunrise. A short wave will lift northeast across
Iowa this afternoon. It will be the focus for more convection
later today, although much of that will remain well to the
southeast. There may be a few showers on the northern fringe of
the system that can reach southern MN and western WI, but
rainfall amounts will be negligible.

Southerly flow increases Thursday as a deep trough approaches
from the Rockies. A nice bump up in temperatures is expected
with low to possibly mid 80s across western MN and 70s across
eastern MN and WI. Moisture will begin to advect back north, but
the deepest moisture won't arrive until late Friday immediately
ahead of a strong cold front. Much of the day will be strongly
capped thanks to mid level lapse rates nearing 9 C/km and a
relatively dry boundary layer. The cap will gradually erode as
low level moisture increases mid to late afternoon. The front
will spark scattered thunderstorms along it, likely along or
east of I-35 by late afternoon. Initial storms may be splitting
supercells given strong unidirectional shear profiles and the
likelihood that some parts of the cap may remain. Not too long
after initiation, additional activity is likely to form and
congeal into a squall line. This evolution may take place
southeast of the CWA depending on the timing of the front (which
is a little more progressive than before) and when the CAP does
break. Nonetheless, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms
late Friday afternoon and early evening, mostly in WI. Highs
should reach the 70s east of the front Friday afternoon, with
temperatures plummeting 30+ degrees into the 30s and 40s by
early evening. Moist cyclonic flow for late Friday night and
Saturday still brings the potential for some snow showers, but
models have trended decidedly drier in the snow department.
Highs Saturday may remain in the 30s.

Cold temperatures will be short-lived with the trough modifying
by Sunday and ridging potentially returning early next week.
There remains spread in the guidance with how strong the push
toward ridging will be and we may just maintain northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas of fog have developed across western MN. A larger bank of
IFR stratus and fog exists across northern MN and WI and is
slowly building southwest. Scattered mid level clouds are
decreasing. The fog should become more widespread during the
next several hours, but confidence is low at each TAF site.
Best chances for IFR fog after 08-10Z will be AXN, STC, RNH and
EAU.

KMSP...Removed the fog early this morning. It appears the best
chances will remain north and east. Some shallow ground fog is
still possible, but conditions are less favorable than Tuesday
morning for persistent dense fog.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR early, then MVFR/TSRA likely late in the afternoon.
Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts.
SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff