FXUS64 KMRX 150647 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions - A better chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Unseasonably hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the area, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. For Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range. The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave trough approaching from the west late Thursday that will move across our area Thursday night. The late arrival of increased cloud cover and precip chances Thursday will allow for another very warm day with high temperatures not far off the records. RH values will again bottom out in the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon and winds will be slightly stronger. As the short wave moves in it will bring a chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday night, but weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in light rainfall amounts, and little overall impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires (ensemble data has chances for 24 hour precipitation amounts exceeding a quarter inch ranging from around 10% to 30%, with the higher values across our northwest counties). Models show some limited instability that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area as the trough moves east. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). What is more certain than the precip amounts is that we will see cooler temperatures moving in with high temperatures near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Latest KMRX VAD Wind Profile data suggest southwest winds near 25 to 30 kts are occurring around 2kft. This aligns well with latest 925mb mesoanalysis data, thus, carried some LLWS for the morning hours with this latest TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly sfc winds will increase in a typical diurnal fashion today. Wind speeds predominantly around 10kts, with occasional gusts in the 15-20kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS