FXUS64 KMRX 150539
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
139 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean
little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather
conditions.

- Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage
  Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures
  next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the
area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE
CONUS.

Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs
with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover.
Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests,
bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most
locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than
the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thursday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. This system brings a
chance of showers Thursday evening, but weak dynamic forcing and
limited moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on
average) and little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and
wildfires. There is some elevated instability that will support
some thunderstorms, mainly in our Plateau counties.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model
agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing
lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front,
cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to
normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Latest KMRX VAD Wind Profile data suggest southwest winds near 25
to 30 kts are occurring around 2kft. This aligns well with latest
925mb mesoanalysis data, thus, carried some LLWS for the morning
hours with this latest TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail. Southwesterly sfc winds will increase in a typical
diurnal fashion today. Wind speeds predominantly around 10kts,
with occasional gusts in the 15-20kt range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  60  87  60 /   0   0  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  60  85  60 /   0   0  10  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  58  85  59 /   0   0  20  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  56  83  57 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS