FXUS64 KMRX 152347 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 747 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 743 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today. Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%, with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a Fire Danger Statement, and will reevaluate the need for that tomorrow morning after coordination with forestry. The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night. Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quarter inch in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability (~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds likely to drop to near calm once more tonight, resume diurnal winds and a few gusts again during peak mixing hours tomorrow. Winds aloft near but below LLWS criteria overnight. Very low chance for a rain shower near the terminals post 18z tomorrow, left out of TAFs for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 61 / 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 84 60 / 0 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 58 84 58 / 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 82 58 / 0 0 10 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...Wellington